September 18th

Market report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London wheat closed down 85p on Friday, bringing the weeks fall to £1.90; the fall has largely been attributed to sterling gains, currently £ / euro 1.1382.

Previous Euro strength has been hindering EU exports, exports from EU 45% below last season. Big Russian crop dominated markets, Russian grain is being exported to Indonesia, Vietnam and they almost have a monopoly on Egyptian business. Egypt states they have 3.4 million tonnes wheat stocks enough for 4.5 months’ supply.

Australian wheat crop expected to be cut further due to weather issues.

US markets are quiet but soya remains supported by Chinese demand and wet conditions in Argentina, dry conditions Brazil.

Mixed quality for US wheat; 2017 average protein 13.2, previous record came in 2003 at 12.7, 11.8 is the 5 year average and last year it was 12.4. Average kg/hl is 76.8 and hagberg 259 (5 year average 301). It is estimated that only 31% group 1 wheat suitable for breadmaking but 40% of wheat crop was group 1 & 2. Whilst premiums have improved, will there could be a swing this autumn away from growing quality wheats with additional costs?

Oil continues to firm whilst gold declines.

author: Joe Beardshaw



September 13th

Market report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London wheat closed down 10p but last night’s USDA report published near to the London market close, so there may be some reaction first thing.

The USDA report summary:
Corn – bearish, yields put at 169.9 bushels / acre, if true would see stocks to use ratio at 12 year high. Corn markets initially fell post report but did recover, values closed at market lows and ‘perceived’ cheap.
Soya – bearish, yield / crop maintained previous big crop forecast.
Wheat – neutral, but traded up as report indicated world stocks slightly reduced, although it estimated Russian wheat crop at 81 mmt.

Sterling maintains gains, euro worth roughly 90p (92p last week), UK budget announced for Wednesday 22 November.

Australian wheat production lowest for 9 years and canola lowest crop since 2010.

Brent crude close to $55 barrel

author: Joe Beardshaw


August 08th

Market report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

Yesterday, London wheat closed down 75p despite sterling weakness, Brexit negotiations stumble on.

US markets were up, an important USDA report is due Thursday, this will focus on production and supply / demand. Corn production will be lower due to present weather pattern; soya yields will be reduced but record area was planted.

Australian wheat crop has been further cut to 22.7-22.8 mmt, last year producing 35.1 mmt.

French soft wheat production is up at 36.78 mmt (+34% year on year), average yields 7.15 t/h. Rapeseed production 5.22 mmt (last year 4.74 mmt) average yields 4.74 t/h. Corn estimated 12.76 mmt (2016 11.71 mmt).

Chinese corn deficit put at 9 mmt (previous 6 mmt) as demand out paces production, however this deficit does not include state reserves which gives some insurance; true situation in China never known exactly.

Malting barley prices remain stable, 55,000t French malting barley destined for China.

author: Joe Beardshaw



July 24th

Market report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London wheat closed up on Friday 25p but showing little change on the week, unlike European wheat with matif wheat closing €6 down on the week.

French quality / protein good, French production estimated 36.6 mmt (27.6mmt 2016 crop), roughly in line with production average 2008-15. Yield average forecast at 7.12 t/h, this is 3.6% below 2008-15 average.

Early UK wheat results ‘encouraging’. Nationally, winter malting barley quality is good - average nitrogen’s but variable screenings. Early spring barley results are mixed, some good results in East Anglia but early days. UK feed wheat is presently too expensive for exports and milling premiums may come under pressure if quality is good and high % of group 1 & 2’s planted.

US markets were mixed, corn sharply down despite hottest temperature of the year and momentum appears to be stalling. Soya showed some resilience and wheat continues to suffer from hot and dry conditions.

IMF reduced growth forecast for UK and US, UK growth reduced to 1.7% from previous 2.0% and US reduced to 2.1% from 2.3%. European growth increased and global growth 2017 estimated at 3.5% and 2018 3.6%
UK and US start trade deal talks.
US allowed to ship US rice to China for first time ever.

Oil prices down as production reduction has not drastically cut supplies, Nigeria and Libya increasing production.

author: Joe Beardshaw



July 20th

Market report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions

London wheat traded up 55p on Tuesday but lost this small gain yesterday, although on light volume.

US corn and soya firmer as weather continues to threaten yields but wheat slightly weaker.

Very early UK wheat results indicate good quality with ‘alleged’ very high kg/hl. UK wheat about £5 too expensive to compete in current export markets, but with tight balance sheet it will depend on production.

French wheat quality good with high protein, this may help their export programme.

UK barley does compete in export markets at current levels and already export volumes look very healthy. First spring barley results showing very variable quality in terms of screenings and nitrogen, but too early to draw firm conclusions.

Sterling slightly down as lower inflation rate reduced need for interest rate rise.

author: Joe Beardshaw




June 27th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

Yesterday, November 17 London wheat closed down £1.25.

European wheat yield forecast has been reduced 0.05 t/h to 5.86 t/h due to dry / heat ( 5 year average 5.84 t/h). Barley also reduced to 4.7 t/h (5 year average 4.83 t/h); reports from France suggest disappointing barley yields.

UK crops are rapidly changing with concern about wheat and it is still June.

Russian crop potential good, but Ukraine may have been damaged by dry conditions.

US corn and soya markets are quiet but wheat is down, having recently hit 3 month high; the rise in wheat was attributed to funds reducing positions due to weather but now they are neutral.

USDA report this Friday will forecast planted areas, it is expected to be a big increase in soya area, production estimated 4.43 – 4.50 billion bushels (consumption 4.23 ).

author: Joe Beardshaw


June 15th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

Yesterday, London November 17 wheat closed up 60p.

US markets retreated after recent rises with better weather (rain) forecast. However, corn remains in an uptrend and spring wheat yield is forecast at less than 40 bushels (last year average 47 bushels), rain forecast maybe too late; stocks tightest for 20 years.
Soya plantings could equal corn acres which will be revealed in USDA report June 30th; wheat and corn bullish, soya bearish.

French wheat crop nearly 1 week ahead due to conditions, possible early harvest. Recent French crop tour of barley crops indicated average quality and yield potential due to drought, frost and recent heat. Spring barley 10 days ahead of normal.

UK wheat crops benefitted from recent weather and some estimates talk of 15 million tonne crop.

Russian spring barley area smallest since 1970.

US FED raised interest rates 0.25%, this should strengthen $; strong $ is traditionally bearish to agricultural commodities. Sterling has found some stability; c. 88p against euro as election result is digested but Brexit negotiations could exert further pressure.

Threat of glyphosate ban; according to experts (chemical companies!), if implemented it could see a 20% reduction in UK wheat crop and 5% fall in barley.

author: Joe Beardshaw


June 13th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London wheat closed down 50p yesterday; global markets retreated despite continued sterling woes.

UK politics remains messy, especially with Brexit negotiations imminent keeping sterling weak.

UK imported 209,200 tonnes wheat in April (main suppliers Romania and Denmark), this made UK a net importer of wheat for the season. Decent volumes of corn have also been imported.

The rise of US markets ended abruptly as better weather forecast and bearish sentiment resumed. Overall crop ratings are significantly worse compared this time last year, corn is below alleged production costs and farmers are not selling.

Recent rains have raised EU crop prospects as other origin supply have fallen.

Despite weak sterling and good demand to Spain / Portugal for barley, prices have not improved, but should do with Black Sea supplies destined for Saudi and China.

author: Joe Beardshaw



May 23rd

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London wheat closed up c. £1.50 yesterday, weather and politics were the main influence.

UK old crop wheat has lost momentum as meagre demand has not been helped by imports; old crop premium to new crop may erode.
Rain and present warm weather will see crops quickly progress; the rain has alleviated concerns but yield may have already been lost and further rain will be required.

Europe has also had beneficial rain but recent forecasts have seen production downgraded, Strategie grains reduced EU grain production by 3.6 million tonnes to 301.6 mmt, however this is still up 4.5 mmt compared to last year. MARS, the EU monitoring service, also reduced production in western Europe due to dry conditions, especially Spain. Spain’s barley yield is estimated 2.5 t/h, down .46 t/h from previous estimate and down 30% year on year.

French wheat rated 75% good (this time last year 85%) winter barley 78% (93%), spring barley 67% (84%). However last year French crop problems started in June with heavy rain and a lack sunshine.

EU barley production will be down and the differential to wheat reduced, especially with news that Saudi has bought 1.5 million tonnes for July – August arrival, origin not specified.

US markets have risen as continued weather prevents corn drilling and the planting deadline is soon approaching. Funds are short and if they try to reduce positions it is another bullish factor. Egypt buys US wheat (295,000tonnes), first time for 2 years undercutting Russian and Ukraine supplies.

Trump continues to make headlines. he declared US would pull out of trans –pacific trade agreement. The other 11 members say they will continue if necessary without US.

Sterling falls and the ‘experts’ have changed their opinions, they think sterling is overvalued.

author: Joe Beardshaw



May 05th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London wheat fell 65p yesterday as markets lost momentum

US wheat was sharply down, losing most of the gains from the early part of the week as the short covering petered out. Kansas wheat tour had reported optimistic yields but when all the data is analysed, production could be down 40% year on year.

Latest UN numbers has world wheat stocks up 3.3% for 2017-18 at 247.6 mmt, down 20 mmt year on year. Stocks have increased; wheat consumption has reduced, alternative grain uses have increased – bioethanol.

With all crop estimates there is a time delay and the UN data was compiled a few weeks ago, in the meantime weather has featured.

As a result of dry conditions, French wheat crop rating has reduced 7% good to excellent; winter barley and rapeseed (cold) has suffered greatest damage. Last month, much of France only had 25-50% expected rainfall. Spain, EU ‘s biggest grain importer, is getting to a critical point, crops are more forward and showing significant losses. The UK water shortage is making news headlines, suggestions of ‘hosepipe bans etc.

Sterling slightly down, France expects Macron to win Sundays election, this may support Euro. Early local election results give Conservatives gains.

Oil falls to 5 month low, down 4.78% (Brent $48.38) as world stocks build, US increases production and demand slips.

author: Joe Beardshaw


April 26th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London May 17 wheat was up £1.80 and November 17 + £0.55; the exaggerated May contract rise was technical, tender day is looming and ‘quirky’ values may continue for the next few days.

Currency and weather are the market drivers and in terms of £ / euro, currency had a benign day yesterday. UK annual government deficit estimated to be the lowest since 2008 financial crisis, borrowing has been reduced by £20 billion to £52 billion.

French wheat loading is destined for UK; UK old crop is stuck in a range, rising domestic prices together with stronger £ are attracting imports but the UK prices have a limited downside due to tight supplies.

Weather is increasingly becoming a feature, some areas of Europe are down 25-50% on rainfall, although cooler temperatures have reduced evaporation. May – June are the critical months when crop stress becomes a major threat; however some reports estimate 2 mmt barley and 1 mmt wheat may have already been lost in Spanish potential production due to a lack of rain.

US corn and wheat markets found support yesterday, mainly due to continued wet and cold weather delaying planting. Soybean oil also gained due to commercial buying and expectation of legislation / protection that may come in to deter Argentinean bio diesel ‘dumping’.

Oil up 1% with Brent crude $52

author: Joe Beardshaw




April 21st

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London old crop closed down 70p and new crop up 20p making May – November differential £9.00. Part of the reason for this contrast is sterling strength, it is provoking wheat imports into UK; 3000 tonnes French wheat loading following last week’s 4000 tonnes. Both Ensus and Vivergo are placed to take imports; Ensus can also use corn as well. UK supply / demand remains tight and any harvest date will be important.

New crop supported by continued dry weather concerns with parts of Europe only having 30% normal rainfall, North Africa is dry (Algeria , Morocco) having had no rain for last 30 days; rain prospects are limited for the next 10 days.

Heavy world supplies do offer insurance against weather threats, Black Sea exports are below expectation and therefore increasing stocks; Russian and Ukraine wheat production for 2017 crop will down due to weather, yield closer to normal and lower area.

US markets much weaker, Kansas wheat reaching new lows; recent rains have removed the dry threat that existed 1 month ago. Conditions for corn and soya planting are good, further helping the bearish sentiment, but this would be 5th good US harvest in a row, if conditions continue.

Canadian wheat area is down 3.7%; growers have switched to alternative crops such as canola, this is thought to be a reaction to low wheat prices.

author: Joe Beardshaw



April 12th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London wheat closed down 50p on old crop and down 25p new crop due to sterling strength and negative world markets.

Sterling rose with euro currently worth less than 85p as UK economic data shows support.

USDA report yesterday published bearish numbers but wheat actually closed up as there was some short covering rally. South American production at the high end of expectations (Brazil soya 111 mmt) and certainly much higher compared to this time last year. Soya traded at one year low; will this impact US planting intentions?

UK wheat supply / demand situation remains tight, especially if there are new crop problems.

Whilst plentiful global stocks weigh on sentiment due to ‘Good’ global harvests, the market remains nervous with an expectation, due to probability, of potential future weather threats. Although not critical yet, Europe is experiencing dry condition; conditions in eastern Europe need to be monitored.

Brent crude traded over $56 barrel, OPEC and non OPEC nations (e.g Russia) reduced supplies in March by more than they pledged.

Certain Japanese crisp brands have suspended production following the worst domestic potato harvest for 34 years.

author: Joe Beardshaw




April 03rd

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London wheat was slightly weaker on Friday, this compounded losses for the week of c. £0.50, however Nov 17 wheat is this morning up 95p.

French wheat hit new contract lows, rated 90% good to excellent, down 1% from previous week. This time last year the rating was 92% good to excellent, so there is still plenty of time for things to change; certain areas of France could do with some rain. Putting aside potential 2017 northern hemisphere wheat crop, markets are still trying to digest the world wheat crop surplus of 2016; stocks to use ratio presently at 33%.

Friday’s USDA report saw a big increase in soya area (only .5 million acres less than corn) resulting in soya sharply going down; wheat and corn are up as their area declined. In 1990, wheat had the largest area then corn and then soya, it is now corn, soya and wheat.

Sterling has registered its first quarterly gain against $ since 2015; there is still much debate about currency, the range of views would indicate that no one really knows.

Oil prices improve as stocks reduced and supplies may be curtailed either for political or economic (OPEC) reasons.

author: Joe Beardshaw




March 17th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London May 17 wheat closed down 45p and November 17 wheat down £1.15.

Sterling gained on reports that the UK interest rates could rise with BOE committee showing sympathy for rate rise, Euro supported by Dutch election result.

US market held recent gains as export figures supported soya and corn (corn exports up 66% year on year); wheat still suffering dry conditions in plains.
Funds are 80% long on soya meal indicating bullish sentiment but also danger if no weather threat emerges, there could be panic selling.

Plenty of wheat buying, Algeria buying 480,000 tonnes after last month’s 585,000 purchases; Egypt has bought 1.68 mmt in last month’s tender.

EU wheat exports forecast to get back to 26 mmt next season as yields and quality recover from the 2016 harvest problems.

author: Joe Beardshaw

March 06th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

Friday London May 17 closed down 20p and November 17 up 35p; UK wheat registered gains of c. £2.00 for the week however at the time of writing old crop has firmed up. UK old crop wheat is stuck in a range supported by a tight balance sheet.

European wheat crop potential looking good, French wheat rated 93% good to excellent; UK crops good apart from oilseed in eastern England. EU forecast EU wheat crop up 5.7% year on year at 143 mmt but this is below other predictions of 150 + mmt.

Sterling falls below 1.16 against euro but there remains split opinions on forward trends; sentiment that the euro is gaining and sterling is falling appears to be gaining traction, based on European voters rejecting anti EU policies; but we have seen how misleading polls can be!

US markets are quiet as changes to biofuel mandate appear to be a rumour and unsubstantiated. There is an expectation that the FED may raise interest rates, this would potentially strengthen $ and be bearish for agricultural commodities. If $ gains it would make European wheat; both euro and sterling when prices compared in $, more attractive.

China announces reduced growth for 2017 at 6.5%; growth in 2016 was 6.5 – 7%, the lowest levels for 26 years.

author: Joe Beardshaw


February 23rd

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London wheat is not showing any dramatic price change, old crop down 20p and new crop up 20p.

Weather continues to be benign, but we are getting into the period when market volatility responds to weather and sentiment.

The big unknown factor on price direction continues to be currency; there is a conflict of opinion amongst currency ‘experts’, some are saying UK economy proving resilient and Europe is in election mode, so we will see sterling gain. Others say UK will suffer as Brexit proves difficult to implement and UK trade deficit will see sterling decline.

US markets are also quiet, although wheat did firm on cold conditions in US winter wheat area. Corn has quietly been trending higher for the last 5 months. USDA agricultural forum today / tomorrow will indicate planting intentions , likely to show record soya area.

Egypt buys further 360,000t wheat from Russia and Ukraine, this will bring weekly total to 720,000 tonnes. The season’s cumulative total is 4.6 mmt; this time last year 3.25 mmt. French wheat was price competitive at last tender but suffered from higher freight costs.

India may need to increase wheat imports as domestic supplies dwindle, but Australia will benefit from increased demand with bumper crop to distribute.

author: Joe Beardshaw





February 21st

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London wheat closed c. £1 down yesterday as grain markets generally had a negative day.
UK old crop wheat is seeing little trade, there is no margin to export and domestic buyers are taking a low profile which maybe just as well with few farmer sellers.
Supply / demand situation does feel tight, further tonnage may not come to market until Feb sale contracts / pool commitments are completed; cash flow pressure not apparent.

With plentiful global wheat stocks and no real weather threats, sentiment on new crop is nervous / bearish. French wheat rated 92% good to excellent, and limited winterkill reported in Europe. Ukraine is the only area of concern, thick snow could cause snow mould if it does not melt and north eastern Europe (Germany – Finland) could benefit from some rain.

US markets were closed yesterday for presidents day, but markets were down Friday as funds reduced positions; US wheat too expensive in export markets and soya fell on big south American production. USDA outlook conference Thursday and Friday this week will indicate US planting intentions; how much corn land will be switched to soya as high oilseed prices attract growers.

Mexico may try to look to south America for wheat, corn and beef in response to Trump’s actions, but this maybe not be practical due to increased freight costs.

Virulent bird flu in China will see poultry production reduce, meaning less feed demand; bird flu may reduce soya meal demand 1-2 mmt.

The present strength of the UK economy may give chancellor Hammond some wriggle room, avoiding tax increase or service cuts in March budget.

In some areas of Russia, land prices have increased by 60% over the past two years, however Stockholm listed Black Earth had pulled out of Russia; Black Earth at one stage was responsible for 330,000 hectares. Western investors in Russian land have been replaced by middle and far east investment combined with domestic buyers; Russia now rank top wheat exporter.

UK single malt whisky export sales topped £1 billion for first time, total Scotch whisky sales of £4 billion have benefitted from weaker sterling (93% whisky exported).

author: Joe Beardshaw



January 13th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London wheat closed up £1.25 on old crop and up £0.85 on new crop making May – November differential £9.50. How wide can this spread become? Allegedly there are traders who see £10.50 as a trading spread opportunity.

Sterling falls below 1.15 against euro as Brexit concerns and current account deficit weighs on sentiment. There is talk that sterling may fall to $1.10 (currently $1.21); euro has its own concerns as attention switches to forthcoming French elections in April, what is the price on political risk? FTSE records 11th day running record close.

Yesterday’s USDA report caused some excitement, soya beans closing up 28 cents and wheat 13 cents. Soya stocks were reduced despite record harvest, 36% estimated available supplies were used in the first quarter, demand remains strong. Winter wheat area in US lowest since 1909. Whilst there is bullish trend appearing, there is still major concerns about possible trade conflicts / disruption when Trump takes control.

Extreme winter weather and strong winds are disrupting grain shipments from Eastern Europe.

UK rapeseed production for 2017 is estimated at 1.89 mt; down due to smaller area and crop losses. The reduced production should make the balance sheet tight and likely to see UK rapeseed markets at premium to Europe.

author: Joe Beardshaw


January 04th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London wheat closed up 45p on 2016 crop and up 25p new crop. The UK supply / demand looks tight; wheat from the south travels north to satisfy demand. Will Ensus continue beyond February and will Vivergo reopen increasing demand. The market has been supported by a lack of sellers. There is a lack of new export trade and limited to domestic demand, will this demand be able to absorb selling if / when it happens?

US markets saw corn up and soya and wheat down; wheat got some support from cold snap threatening wheat plantings prompting some commercial buying. There is concern over Soya, the March soya contract is close to the November contract low; funds are long and if this level is broken there could be panic selling on the back of sentiment change.

Sterling gains slightly on UK economic growth, although continued confusion / uncertainty about Brexit. UK barley at c. £17 discount to feed wheat looks a big differential and could see domestic consumers, where practical, increase usage.

Reports from Ukraine say wheat plants have higher sugar levels in tillering nodes which makes plants more robust and able to survive cold conditions; Ukraine wheat area + 2.2%.

Oil falls from 18 month high as stronger $ and Trump uncertainty affects markets.

author: Joe Beardshaw


January 03rd

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

2017 starts with some analysts (e.g. Goldman Sachs) predicting a bullish trend for commodities such as mineral and oil but not wheat and corn. Growth in the global economy combined with reduced stocks will support oil etc but record global stocks of corn and wheat weighs on sentiment.

US markets in 2016 saw corn down 2% during the year, soya + 14% and wheat -13%; markets not helped by stronger $.

World wheat supplies bolstered by raised Argentinean wheat harvest now estimated + 15 mmt (USDA 14.4 mmt). Western Australia also posting big harvest numbers.

Egypt buys 235,000 wheat all Russian apart from one Ukrainian cargo, surprisingly no Argentinean wheat.

Oil prices remains stables, markets wait to see if OPEC induced production cuts will be implemented in January.

This year is the centenary when Fitz Haber and Carl Bosch created the Haber – Bosch process, transforming air nitrogen into fertiliser.

author: Joe Beardshaw


December 29th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

Yesterday, US markets lost some of the sizeable gains seen on Tuesday. Tuesday’s gains were not attributed to any fundamental change / reason but possibly more ‘book squaring’ before year end. $ closed against a basket of currencies at the highest level since 2002, curtailing the presence of US grain in export markets.
Corn is also weaker, there is speculation that the Trump administration is sceptical about ethanol benefits to the environment and may change ethanol mandate.

Wet weather in Argentina is hampering last soya and corn drilling but wheat area is up 20% (5.23 mh) which could see a production increase of 39% to 15.7 mmt, yields permitting.

Bird flu threat remains in EU, two wild birds in England and a third in Scotland have tested positive for bird flu.

Egypt announces it has sufficient wheat for 5 months.

Russian wheat exports reduce due to rouble strength; Russian economy is oil dependant and oil prices are stronger due to the reduced world production (Brent c. $57 barrel).

FTSE trades higher supported by strong mining company performance.

author: Joe Beardshaw



December 20th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

May 17 (16 crop) London wheat closed up £1.10 yesterday, Nov 17 (17 crop) up 30p, May 17 is £1.95 presently at a premium to May 18.

European commission says mild weather in EU and eastern Europe has meant crops have not ‘hardened’ off and increases danger of winterkill with colder weather forecast for Russia and Ukraine, especially with little snow cover. The situation was the same last year but damage was limited by lack of sustained cold weather.

US markets were down yesterday, especially soya which finally responded to big South American crops / supplies; rain has benefitted production potential. Fundamentals are negative, there is a bearish sentiment, although 50% of US hard wheat belt may have been damaged by cold conditions.

Investors have taken biggest long position in oil markets since July 2014, this has been as a result of Oil producers both (Opec and non Opec producers) cutting supply by 2 million barrels day.

Some analysts feel sterling is overvalued and maybe due a fall as Brexit situation develops; many EU countries are having elections in 2017 and may take a hard stance to negotiations. Low UK interest rates may provoke an even greater spending spree over Christmas, boosting UK economy but the repercussions may come later.

Interest rates and politics will continue to influence currency added to which recent events in Berlin, Turkey and Italian bank situation.

author: Joe Beardshaw


December 19th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London wheat closed c. 50p down on Friday but was up 30p (2016 crop) and up 45p (2017 crop) for the week.

Exports from EU are slowing, wheat is up 1% year on the year, barley down 65% and corn imports down 19%.

French wheat area for 2017 has slightly increased; early crop forecasts are estimating 37.7 mmt compared to a disastrous 2016 crop of 28mmt. 2016 crop saw production at its lowest levels since 1993.

US markets showing some resilience, especially soya which should come under pressure from big south American crop, but it is at present holding up.

Last week US Fed increased interest rates; strong $ is generally bearish for commodities. Sterling remains stable at 1.19 against euro but struggles to break 1.20.

China may need to import 4 mmt of wheat; this year they had poor domestic wheat and corn quality.

Southern Russia has experienced cold temperatures (up to -18), with only 2 cm of snow cover, some damage may have occurred. Russia normally does have some winterkill and any damage does not become apparent until the spring.

Debate continues about the size of UK malting crop. Malting premiums have benefitted from weaker sterling and poor French crop. Big discount of feed barley to wheat may deter some spring barley drilling as risk is perceived too big if quality specification is not achieved. English spring area forecast is up but Scottish crop down as lack availability of malting contracts; open autumn and better wheat prices encouraged wheat drilling.

author: Joe Beardshaw

December 06th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London wheat closed down ~ £1 yesterday following last week’s losses that totaled c. £3.80. For comparison, French wheat was down €8.25 but rapeseed up €8.0

Sterling has now had 5 weeks up, the Eurozone is nervous with talk of referendums / votes taking place. Italian prime minister Renzi resigns due to referendum defeat; Italian bank shares fall sharply as they try to raise finances.

US markets are firmer, led by soya as commercial buying / exports improve.

Abares, the Australian farm ministry, raises crop forecast to 32.6 mmt (+35% year on year) from September forecast of 28.1 mmt.

Canadian wheat crop put at 30.7 mmt; largest for 3 years.

French wheat rated 94% good - very good; this time last year rated 97%, however 2016 French crop had problems; 22% early tillering stage.

Dry weather in South America has seen funds increase bullish position on soya.

author: Joe Beardshaw



November 28th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

Friday trade was quiet with US markets closed for Thanksgiving, however London 16 crop closed up £1.00. Over the week 16 crop was up £0.80 and 17 crop down £1.00.

French winter wheat rated 94% good to excellent (98% this time last year) and winter barley 92% (98%).

Russian winter grain area put at 17.3 m hectares (up 1 million hectares).

Australian wheat crop estimated 28.3 mmt but this is considered low by Nidera (Australia), they are forecasting 31 mmt based on Eastern Australia reporting heavy yields.

Debate about size of Argentinean wheat crop; harvest 35% complete, range of 2.4 mmt from 12.5 mmt to 14.9 mmt.

Threat of bird flu in Europe increases especially Denmark and Finland; 100,000 turkeys slaughtered in Germany and an emu in Ueckermunde zoo dies from bird flu

Sterling remains at a 2 month high against euro (1.1750 / .8517), UK economy grows 0.5% in third quarter and business investment remains above expectation.

Francois Fillon wins French conservative nomination and will run in next year’s presidential elections to face Marine Le Pen, he promises fairer society saying ‘French people want truth and want action’.

author: Joe Beardshaw

November 24th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London markets had a quiet trading day yesterday, May 17 up £0.05 and Nov 17 down £1.25.

UK trade is, at present, mainly limited to domestic trade, Vivergo and Ensus requiring continued supplies.

Sterling rose in response to mini budget / autumn statement.

Euro nervous as Austria has elections on 4 December and far right candidate Hofer says he will call for referendum on EU membership; polls have it too close to call.

US markets tend to go dormant ahead of thanksgiving holiday, but renewable fuel mandate supported soya bean oil and corn (37% US crop goes for ethanol), despite $ reaching 13 year high in expectation of interest rate rise.

European wheat plantings suffered poor emergence due to dry conditions followed by wet weather that has delayed further plantings.

India may have to import an extra 5 mmt of wheat, this is above previous estimates due to poor domestic crop.

Glencore ship 53,000 tonnes French barley to Saudi; French barley shipments have been down as China have used corn instead of barley.

author: Joe Beardshaw


November 17th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London wheat closed down yesterday, old crop down 25p and new crop (2017) down 70p.

UK exports for September show total of 712,000 tonnes so far, this does include a volume of old crop shipped in July, UK exports benefitted from post Brexit sterling weakness. Imports were down 23% year on year for September but these figures would indicate a tight balance sheet going into new year.
New wheat export business from UK is presently struggling due to cheaper alternatives and cheap maize supplies; Ensus could switch to maize if wheat supplies prove difficult to source.

US markets are down, the $ reaches highest level since December; all agricultural commodities (apart from cocoa) are $ denominated and will suffer if $ strengthens. Speculation continues about Trump economic policy and possible tariffs. 75% US farmers voted for Trump as he promised tax cuts for family farms.

Australian wheat crop estimates remain at 27.6 mmt but harvest is slow, eastern Australia is 3 weeks behind; wet weather has helped yields but threatens quality.

Romania may be unable to drill 10% winter area due to weather. Russian and Ukraine crops are potentially looking good but presently colder than average although there is some protection from snow cover.

Scottish spring barley crop from 2016 harvest estimated at 1.3 mmt, lowest total since 1998 and 17% down year on year; fall due to reduced area and lower yields.
Distilling demand has increased as plants come back on stream after maintenance and whisky demand increases helped by exports. Counter to the potential increase in demand, the area of spring barley is anticipated to continue its increase, with the 2017 UK area forecast to be almost 17% higher.


author: Joe Beardshaw


November 16th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London wheat closed up £1.50 on old crop and up £0.90 on new crop.

Sterling was weaker, inflation slowed in October, this has reduced chances of possible rate rise and reports about Brexit ‘chaos’ has had a destabilising effect.

UK wheat, even at current sterling rates, are being undercut by Baltic / Black Sea origin, this is also being coupled with cheap corn supplies.

There are big boats due to load in UK pre xmas from previous business; the supply / demand situation looks tight into new year.

US markets had a turnaround Tuesday, corn, soya and wheat all up. There are heavy corn stocks, will any rally be sustained long term, especially if $ firms?
Speculation about Trump effect; infrastructure spending and possible tax cuts will help economy.

Whilst European wheat stocks are getting tighter there is still plenty of wheat in rest of world.

Oil firms up as OPEC again talk of limiting supplies but it is doubtful they will want to drastically reduce oil income.

author: Joe Beardshaw




October 25th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London wheat closed virtually unchanged yesterday as stronger sterling was countered by tight domestic supply and little farm selling.

Sterling is c. 89p against euro, the euro under pressure and was sold after Draghi comments. US election and continued Brexit negotiations will mean currency is likely to remain volatile.

The weak sterling has significantly assisted UK export growth, speed and volume of orders has been the highest for 2.5 years.

US markets saw corn and wheat down but soya is up as a result of vegetable oil market. The recent rise in US wheat prices has been due to shorts reducing / buying back their positions; short positions in wheat have been cut by nearly 50% in the last 2 weeks.

Third wheat boat in UK loading for Algeria with fourth also due. Black Sea wheat prices are up as are global corn prices; UK wheat should be underpinned by relatively weak sterling and good quality.

Whilst UK values have improved there is still a world glut of grain in stocks, although a lot of this stock is in locations that make verification difficult (China, Russia etc).

author: Joe Beardshaw

October 17th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London wheat continued its upward trend closing up £2.20 November 16, gaining £5.05 for the week. However, the November contract has also been pushed up on technical reasons and other forward contracts did not achieve quite the same increase.

UK wheat continues to benefit from weak sterling, recent reports stating UK economy is in for prolonged weakness due to reduced consumer spending and lower investment. Bank of England has spent £1 billion buying corporate bonds to protect economy. During this period of a weaker sterling there has also been a reduction in migrants; is the UK now not seen as such a good destination / earning opportunity?

EU wheat exports are 17% ahead of this time last year, despite little French volume. The USDA has for the season EU exports 28% down year on year; if current pace continues stocks will be tighter.

US markets are firmer, ignoring last week’s bearish USDA report; Dec corn 2 month high and Dec wheat 7 week high. The market is supported by nervous short covering and increase exports; US wheat cheapest priced wheat in Egyptian tender but lost out due freight (Egypt bought Romanian & Russian).

French winter wheat 23% planted (34% last year) and barley 39% (54% last year).

La Nina and drought threat is still in the news but this has featured for a while and possibly accounted for in the market.

Brent crude c. $52 barrel

author: Joe Beardshaw


October 12th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London wheat closed up £1.15 yesterday despite sterling stabilising. Funds are short covering in U.S and Paris supported market.

USDA report is due today, this has made markets nervous and funds are reducing their position. The October USDA report tends to have market impact as production and yield more reality rather than projection. Soya yields expected to increase but how much of this is factored in?

UK wheat exports for season have been put at 457,000 tonnes (including 80,000 to France) but this includes a chunk of old crop.
Weak sterling and good quality is making UK wheat attractive but there still remains a lack of farm sellers.

Egypt, despite ergot problems and cash ‘tightness’, projected to import record amount of wheat (11.8 mmt?) due to growing population; currently imports are behind last year meaning acceleration maybe required.

Oil trading at $52 barrel, Russia has announced it may join OPEC. Stronger oil prices firms rouble making Russian wheat more expensive in world markets.

author: Joe Beardshaw


October 10th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London wheat closed up £1.20 to register gains of £2.25 for the week; French wheat was €3.50 down for the week.

Since the Brexit vote, Sterling is down 17% against $ and 14% against €. U.K wheat has risen 12% since the vote and French wheat has declined 4% highlighting currency impact.

French wheat exports are down due to poor quality and stronger currency a drop of 20% year on year; only 25% of French wheat is making 76 kg/hl against 80% last year. France has smaller crop but imports are up, wheat from places like Romania are bought for blending. The demise of French exports has benefitted Russia; Russia are gaining a bigger share of export market.

US markets tried to rally on Friday but closed down (e.g soya 18 cent range on the day). Funds increased their short position on wheat which will provoke short covering / correction at some stage. Poor jobs data has reduced the expectation of an interest rate rise. October USDA is on Wednesday, this may have a major impact as it will publish harvested acres, yield and production.

French winter wheat 6% planted against 17% this time last year; dryness continues to cause delays. Dry weather is also affecting maize harvest, EU crop further reduced 2.8 mmt to 59.7 mmt

author: Joe Beardshaw

October 06th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London wheat closed unchanged yesterday but has gained £1.70 so far this week, the main driver of this increase is a weaker sterling; to put this in perspective, sterling reached a 31 year low against $. The weaker sterling has come about as Brexit continues to gather momentum and as markets speculate. However, sterling slightly recovered yesterday as economic figures of UK growth were encouraging and FTSE soars.

UK wheat markets continue to cope with a lack of farmer selling; wheat exports from UK are estimated at 600,000 tonnes July – September, 300,000t were old crop in July.

Corn, soya and wheat have at some stage this week each provided support to the US markets. Extreme weather approaching South East America may damage soya and corn in these regions that has yet to be harvested.

Dry conditions that have caused planting concerns in Eastern Europe are also now affecting Western Europe, rain is needed in France.

UK land values fall as commodity values decline. Farmers are still the biggest buyers of land but now account for less than 50% of all farm sales; cash flow problems are enabling institutional investors to acquire. April – June 2015 English land prices averaged £10,700 acre; July – September 2016 average sale value £9,300 acre.

Oil firmer with Brent crude close to $50 barrel

author: Joe Beardshaw

October 03rd

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London wheat closed up 5p on Friday to bring the weekly gain to 35p but up £4.10 for September.

London markets were helped by sterling which fell sub to 1.15 (.8650p) against euro as Brexit gathers pace.

USDA report on Friday was neutral for corn and soya but wheat stocks were up 21% year on year, they are at the highest level since 1998; US markets however closed marginally up on Friday.

IGC predict unchanged winter wheat plantings (northern hemisphere) for 2017 crop. Low prices for wheat have been countered by weaker currency for some producers / exporters

Planting in Ukraine and some parts Russia hampered by dry conditions; Ukraine are behind on last year and 2015 planting was also a very bad year but saved by sympathetic weather!

German firms rally around to support Deutche Bank.

Oil c. $50 barrel

author: Joe Beardshaw




September 27th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London wheat traded down £1 yesterday; despite sterling reaching 3 year low. Sterling suffered from fears of exclusion from single market and ‘fragile’ balance of payments.

EU harvest yields have been further reduced, wheat 5.63 t/h (5.86 t/h last month); corn 6.84 t/h (7.23 t/h),barley 4.77 t/h (4.88). However, all world wheat producers apart from Europe have had bumper yields following previous 3 – 4 good years.

US markets were down as weather sympathetic to harvest and US soya not such discount to Brazil as previous (was 60 cents currently 22 cents)
Wheat values near 10 year low.

Concern about a dry autumn is threatening Russian and Ukraine wheat drillings. Rain is forecast so the threat may diminish; Russia is 50% winter planted. Russian wheat area expected +6%; a weak rouble has helped wheat exports encouraging planting. Russian wheat (+1.2% last week) values have improved; Egypt buying Russian wheat again.

Sterling is weak but Eurozone has its own problems, Deutche bank shares have fallen 50% this year due to fines over irregular trading and Merkel says the government will not step in to support; state support would be in conflict to German government views regarding south European banks.

author: Joe Beardshaw


September 20th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London wheat closed up 80p yesterday following last week’s £2.25 rise; much of this rise attributed to weaker sterling. For comparison, Paris wheat was up 0.75 euro (c.65p) on week.

UK wheat has been supported by a lack of farmer selling and Ensus (bio fuel) demand for wheat, prices in the north east are becoming a premium market; this will mean wheat is hauled further north. Trade is assumed short of November futures, there could be rush to cover shorts especially if physical hard to buy.

French corn harvest is due to start, yield is anticipated to be further reduced.

US markets higher, especially soya which responded to firmer soya oil / vegetable oil, markets which are close to 2 year high. Wet weather delaying US corn harvest causing shorts to look nervously at their short positions.

Australia still expecting big wheat crop but quality may suffer as la Nina gains power.

EU wheat quality down this year, estimated 29% milling quality against 41% last season.

Egypt, the world’s biggest wheat importer, has failed in its last 3 attempts to buy wheat, zero tolerance on ergot deters sellers.

author: Joe Beardshaw



September 15th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London wheat closed 25p down yesterday; the differential between Nov 16 and Nov 17 c. £8

UK wheat values are being supported by weaker sterling, spot demand to fill boats and reluctant sellers. Bank of England is due to meet today, current interest rates are expected to be maintained, a ‘dovish’ statement is expected and will keep sterling weak.

French 2016 wheat crop estimated 13 mmt down year on year (41 mmt v’s 28), exports down 43% sub 12 mmt. French average wheat yields 5.45 t/h, lowest for 33 years;
Uk wheat crop estimated 14.5 mmt.

French wheat is being exported to Eastern European homes; India importing Ukrainian wheat!

US markets are lack lustre after bearish USDA report (ample supplies), however rain is delaying corn and soya harvest. Funds are at a record shorts and at some stage they will need to reduce positions / take profits, this would cause a buying surge and potentially influence UK prices.

Recently planted Ukrainian crops are being threatened by dry conditions; same situation happened this time last year, but crops recovered.

Romanian trader demands $500,000 compensation for cancelled cargo or ‘performance bond’ due to ergot problems. Russia threatens to ban Egyptian citrus products.

Oil weaker at $46 barrel.

author: Joe Beardshaw




September 08th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London wheat closed up £1.50 yesterday as sterling was slightly weaker and some bullish influences appeared.

French corn crop put at 12.5 mmt which is 7% down year on year ( and 3% lower than august estimate) and smallest crop since 2003. Whilst 40% French corn is irrigated, dry weather has reduced yield.

Russian wheat production estimated at record 72 mmt but Russian exports are currently behind last year. Stronger rouble, variable wheat quality and logistical problems may make it difficult for Russia to gain greater market share into certain destinations.

Dry conditions in Ukraine hampering planting of wheat crops for 17 crop (same as last year but crops exceeded expectations).

US markets higher due to better exports and wet weather delaying harvest

Ensus , UK bioplant and big user of wheat ‘may’ continue production beyond October.

Oil firms up, brent crude c. $48

author: Joe Beardshaw

September 05th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London wheat closed 25p down on Friday, bringing the week’s losses to £3. Much of the decline has been attributed to sterling strength, bolstered by positive domestic economic reports, although the current G20 meeting has indicated concern about UK Brexit.

Australia forecast to possibly beat previous wheat harvest record (2011-12 29.6 mmt) due to favourable weather conditions.

India, the world’s second biggest wheat consumer, may need to import up to 6 mmt and may scrap import tax. Last time they had to import this volume was in 2006-7 when wheat prices rose 50%; however this year Australia will be well placed to fill this demand if harvest forecasts become reality.

Russia may suspend wheat export tax for 2 years (Sept 15th 2016 – 2018) due to good current wheat production.

Argentina due to increase wheat area by 20% to 4.3 m hectares.

US markets closed for Labor Day. Corn and wheat bounced from contract lows despite crop tours indicating big yields. US markets have been supported by soya which has followed vegetable / palm oil markets up, despite big soya crop. Palm oil +18% year to date; soya oil +7% year to date..

China plans to dramatically increase domestic oilseed production over the next 4 years to reduce reliance on imports.

Oil currently c. $47; prices stabilised after Putin suggested Russia and OPEC should agree to limit supplies to support prices; Iran exempt as they rebuild production.

author: Joe Beardshaw





August 25th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London wheat closed down 85p yesterday as sterling gained strength and export demand remained thin.

Sterling found support (3 month high) as UK economy is showing resilience post Brexit and export trade has benefited from weaker sterling.

Debate about size of UK wheat crop ; whilst quality has exceeded expectations, lack of farmer selling and stores not filling indicate lower yields.

French corn yields reduced 3.6% due to dry weather and crop ratings down; 40% of French corn is irrigated.

Lack of export demand is illustrated by Egypt not buying at latest tender and Syria postponed.

US markets drifted; soya has been the market driver but is close to significant resistance levels at $10.25. Wheat exports are better than previous season.

Some investors predicting agricultural commodities are investment opportunity against other commodities such as gold.

author: Joe Beardshaw



August 18th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London wheat closed up yesterday £1.05.

Exports of wheat are happening from UK but this is mainly old business being executed. Despite weak sterling, the UK is struggling to compete with Baltic and Black sea supplies.

Sterling near 3 year low against euro despite positive employment figures. Analysts and speculators are very bearish to sterling, but this is not totally due to Brexit as last time they were positive / bullish was November 15.

Germany continues to reduce wheat production; barley down 9%; corn down 12% and oilseeds down 11%. Comparing 2016 and 2015 is distorted because of exceptional 2015 yields.

Russia increases production estimates with wheat raised another 1 mmt to 70 mmt.

US markets were firmer as oil crops markets support other commodities. Export figures soon to be released are expected to be bullish.

Weaker sterling will increase CAP payments to growers by 15% (payments in euros; when converted to sterling) but input prices (imported) likely to increase.

author: Joe Beardshaw



August 11th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London wheat closed up £1.75, benefiting from a weak sterling (1.1645 / .8588 against euro) that suffered from negative economic news (trade deficits / government bonds).

French wheat crop now estimated at 28.68 mmt, exports projected down 60% to 5.81 mmt from last season’s 12.81 mmt; for first time ever, France will not be Europe’s biggest exporter, it will be replaced by Germany. The void of French exports are likely to be replaced by Russia or even US.

First UK wheats are of good quality and pleasing yields but the ‘bulk’ of the crop are unknown as yet.

Rumours are that Egypt has rejected Russian wheat cargo on quality issues.

Wheat production of Baltic countries are forecast down 9.5% year on year, this is largely due to heavy rains seen over the last 3 weeks.

With wheat harvest underway, attention is switching to corn, reports are that French corn yield maybe reduced by recent heat.

Australia is anticipating a bumper wheat crop as rains fall in east. Considerable rain fall has been attributed to strengthening la Nina; big Australian harvest coincide with la Nina influence.

Brent crude c. $44 barrel

author: Joe Beardshaw




August 08th

market

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London wheat closed down 45p Friday but gained £1.30 for the week.

French farm ministry put French average wheat yields at 5.57 t/ha meaning a 29.1 million tonne crop; worst since 1980.
French wheat harvest 62% complete, however corn crop rated 71% good to very good versus 58% this time last year.

60% UK barley cut, yields estimated 5.9 t/h – 6.3 t/h against recent average of 6.8 t/h. Oilseed average yield 3.1 – 3.3 t/h (recent 3.6 t/h). Wheat area 1.794 million hectares x 7.5 t/h (estimated) = 13.455 million tonnes (last year 16.44 mmt).

Russian harvest progressing, bumper crop of 70.1 m/t anticipated; Western region quality down to rain increasing feed grade rather than milling.

US markets firmer, despite good growing conditions. Soya up on export sales; China may increase soyameal imports and reduce DDG’s (produced from corn). Problems with western Europe raise hopes of wheat exports to north Africa. Non-commercial remain long in soya. Latest favourable US employment numbers increase possibility of interest rate rise = stronger $= bearish agricultural commodities.

Brent crude trading c. $45 barrel

author: Joe Beardshaw

August 03rd

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London wheat closed up yesterday 55p.

Sterling recovered despite expectations that the Bank of England will cut interest rates tomorrow. Carney due to deliver statement on plans to tackle weaker growth and faster inflation post Brexit. £ v’s $ has been trading in a narrow range after Brexit reaction but US has own election situation / nerves.

Despite their big yields, Russian and Ukraine wheat values are firm (Ukraine + 2.2% last week) as smaller French crop removes competition increasing demand for Black Sea supplies. Recent Egypt tender saw only 60,000t Russian wheat bought with no French offers; prices 4% higher than week before.

US markets are weaker as latest USDA crop ratings is 72% good to excellent. Soya prices are down, there is no bullish argument apart from the speed at which the price has declined and non-commercials are still long, this could be price pressure if they try to liquidate; resistance levels are broken.

Early UK wheat reports are encouraging but overshadowed by doubts after French crop yields / quality; will UK follow pattern?? Following on from this there are also concerns about Baltic quality beginning to circulate.

Oil under pressure (Brent $42) as global supply glut and slow demand weighs on sentiment.

author: Joe Beardshaw



August 01st

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London wheat traded up 70p on Friday but closed down 35p for the week.

Market conflict between bad yields in France and robust results elsewhere – Russia and Black Sea.

French crop rated worst since 2003 despite record area. French wheat quality down 2%, now rated 42% good to excellent; 77% this time last year.
Imports likely to rise, France normally imports c. 200,000t premium quality milling wheat; but quality will be helped by carryover stocks of 4.9 mmt, Matif wheat values have climbed by 7% since July 1st

Encouraging German wheat harvest results, as are early UK reports.

World grain production for 2016-17 increased by 20 mmt to 2.046 billion tonnes, within 1 mmt of record high set 2 years ago; demand also increased to exceed 2.0 billion tonnes. Wheat increased to 735 mmt (increase in Russia and US); Russia forecast to harvest 69 mmt. Increased wheat use as competitive to corn.

US markets stabilised on Friday, soya showing a bullish reversal as commercial buying appeared. Weaker $ also helped ag coms, bearish US GDP figures compared even to EU sector.

Argentinean wheat planting delayed by rain.

author: Joe Beardshaw



July 27th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London wheat closed down £1.35 yesterday as markets calmed down after last week’s recent sharp rise the rise was provoked by pessimistic yield reports from France (French wheat 5 month high on Fridays close).

French yields are significantly down with some production forecasts suggesting 30 mmt crop. Production helped by French wheat area at historic high and crop comparisons distorted by last year’s yields being extremely high, above 5 year average.

UK winter barley yields and quality are disappointing and following the French crop results. Opinion is UK wheat will follow trend due lack of June radiation. A reduction in production combined with active July shipping programme (aided by weak sterling post Brexit) will see UK exportable surplus greatly reduced.

Whilst western Europe has suffered, Russia and Black sea are experiencing, allegedly, good yields and are aggressive sellers (£120 fob?), capping the bullish argument from France, Germany, UK etc.

Global grain production for 2016-17 estimated second highest ever

Australia creating emergency storage as they brace themselves for expected record crop.

Rise in wheat prices has narrowed price difference to corn and wheat tends to follow corn. Whilst there is still time before harvest, reports for the corn crops are potentially good.

First results from English spring barley are encouraging, good grain size, low nitrogen’s and average yields but very early days.

US markets down as weather favourable to corn and soya crops.

Brent crude remains c. $45 barrel.

author: Joe Beardshaw



July 07th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

November 16 London wheat closed up 15p yesterday.

US markets were down but the slide slowed. Much of the US markets fall was attributed to non-commercials / funds long liquidated positions. Hot dry weather was forecast 2 weeks ago and funds took 5 year high long positions, since then, wetter milder weather has reduced threats to crops. Soya also found support from technical resistance levels.


Conjecture about UK wheat quality and yield; assuming 14.5 mmt wheat crop, a fall of 3 kg/hl from assumed weights would reduce crop by 4%, c.580,000 tonnes.

Sterling weak and UK wheat quality better than French; this may provoke export interest. French wheat production reduced on weather conditions.


UK wheat supply / demand influenced by bio fuels with Ensus starting production again. Ensus benefitted from lower raw material price but bio fuel production dependant on EU mandates and Brexit impact.

Black sea poised to be biggest global grain shipper.

Brent crude c. $49 barrel

author: Joe Beardshaw



July 05th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

Having registered a fall of £1.50 last week, yesterday November 16 wheat closed up £1.25. Sterling tried to strengthen in response to economic comments from Osborne, but then fell. Analysts are split between whether sterling has been oversold and could bounce or whether further decline expected. Carney hinted at rate cut sooner rather than later.

US markets were closed yesterday, national holiday; corn is pollinating and soya pod is set so all attention is on the weather. US weather for corn belt over the next 7 days indicates slightly higher than average temperatures but some showers. Soya markets supported by soya oil exports; exports are up 39% year on year, Mexico number 1 destination

Strategie grains reduces EU rapeseed production, down 3.1% to 21.24 mmt with average yields 3.37 t/h; production lower than other forecasts.

French wheat good to excellent down 6% at 65% due to continued wet weather; barley is also downgraded 5%. Algeria is the favoured destination for French wheat. Algeria may need to import 8 mmt, a big increase but French quality could struggle to reach required specification.

IGC put global cereal crop second biggest on record, production 16 mmt above consumption.

Favourable weather has raised Russian crop production. Extra production combined with falling prices could increase exports 26.5 mmt wheat in 2016-17 (24.6 mmt 2015-16). Despite reduced area and dry autumn Ukraine may produce similar sized crop to last season.

Brent crude remains c. $50 barrel

author: Joe Beardshaw


July 01st

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

November London wheat closed down 10p, although other positions showed positive gains. UK wheat was boosted late in the session by Governor Carney hinting at interest rate cuts this caused sterling to fall but has since largely recovered.

Yesterday’s USDA report saw a big uplift in soya as planting increase was not as big as expected, growers did not switch out of corn due to rotation, pesticides etc. 3.5 m acres has come back into production, weather prevented cropping last year, however soya area is still up. Dry forecast for U.S has also lent support especially soya where demand is robust.

Apart from interest rate threat, the U.K saw current account deficit (value imports v’s exports) at record levels; economy grew 0.4% first quarter 2016.

Coceral raise EU 28 soft wheat production by 3 mmt to 148.01 mmt (1.35% below last year). Corn up 6.56% to 62.36 mmt and barley also increased 4 mmt, both of these compensate for wheat decline year on year.

Glencore hails ‘window of opportunity’ for UK wheat exports as cheap freight, ample supplies and weak sterling enable opportunities. A 70,000t vessel is due to load next month at Immingham, bound for Vietnam; traditionally UK exports target European homes.
Differential between wheat and corn values also helping as consumers switch to wheat. If UK production is down this harvest, it will see reduced surplus but carryout will still be up due to old – new crop premium incentive.

The EU has seen its credit rating fall from AA+ to AA; financial and economic uncertainty prevails.

It has been reported that the ozone thinning in the Antarctica is slowing (thinning since 1980’s) the thinning has been blamed for some of the extreme weather .

author: Joe Beardshaw

June 17th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London November wheat closed down £1.60 yesterday as agricultural commodities suffered falls, this was largely due external influences rather than fundamentals.

US markets traded sharply lower on opening before recovering but still down for the day, losses have been attributed to funds reducing their positions as they are nervous of imminent Brexit vote and the potential impact on financial markets. Non-commercials are holding major positions and the markets can be directed by non-fundamental influences.

Weather forecast for US could indicate ‘flash drought’ before late summer rains; however currently soil moisture is generally good. Concern will increase if the dry period coincides with corn pollination; hot dry weather at this stage can reduce yield.

Strategie grains reduced their total estimate of French and German wheat crop by 1.3 mmt, this is due to rain and lack of sun. Malting barley prices have firmed as wet weather increases fusarium risk in spring barley.

Wheat harvest forecast 10 days late

author: Joe Beardshaw


June 09th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

The upward momentum continues with November 16 London wheat closing up £2.20.

Markets are weather nervous; US mid-west has potential drought concerns, quality & yield issues for French wheat crop and conditions in Russia and Ukraine are wet, these are all feeding the bullish sentiment.

US markets are firm, especially soya, but wheat closed at highest level for 7 months. Funds remain active, driving the market before tomorrow’s USDA report.

Chinese demand improves, May’s monthly imports are showing oil up 38.7%, iron ore + 22.4% and copper + 18.6%. Soya imports are up 8.3% on last month and + 25% year on year.

Brent crude has established itself above $50 at $ 52.72 barrel.

Sterling continues to react to latest polls, recent poll showing 43% remain against 42% leave, although bookies still have remain as favourites.

Black grass remains serious problem with UK wheat crops, there is an increasing concern of a potential EU ban on glyphosate.

Egypt rejects Polish and Canadian wheat cargoes due to ergot contamination.

Reports of US crops rotting in fields due to lack of migrant labour as reaction to Trump rhetoric.

author: Joe Beardshaw



June 07th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London November 16 wheat closed up £1.85 on the day, but did reach +£2.65 at one stage before retreating. Combination of crops and currency giving market impetus.

Rain in France has seen rapeseed forecast yields reduced 4.9% compared to last year (although area +1.2%) and barley yields reduced 6.1%. Wet weather and associated problems has provoked this cut and wheat likely to follow.

Russia, Ukraine and Black sea also suffering excessive moisture with concerns on yield and quality. Russian wheat prices have risen as the saying ‘rain makes grain’ appears to be ignored

US markets also up but soya’s rise has slowed. Corn demand is good due to Brazilian crop concerns; funds buying to reduce wheat short as wheat cheap alternative to corn.
Reports of drought in mid-west due next month; USDA report due Friday which may give market direction.

Brent crude trading over $50 barrel at levels last seen November 4th 2015.

Sterling recovered slightly but remains under pressure, poll has 45% out and 41% remain.
$ reacts to vague comments by Yellen of no time scale for interest rate rises; weaker $ beneficial to agricultural commodities.

author: Joe Beardshaw



June 06th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

November 16 London wheat closed up 70p on Friday, bringing weekly gains to £3.10.

Bloomberg commodity index, which comprises of 22 raw materials, has registered just under 20% rise since January; 20% rise would signify ‘ a bull trend’.

UK markets helped by sterling weakness (euro 1.2677 / .7888p) as Brexit gather support with latest poll showing 45% leave.

European wheat reached a 5 month high as exports continue to erode stocks.

French wheat ratings down 2% to 85% good compared 89% this time last year; further downgrades expected. Barley down 10% to 78% compared last year 83%. Wet weather will potentially increase threat of disease and quality issues; further showers for France forecast. Poor quality wheat in France could compete with UK export markets.

Excessive rain is also a problem for Russia which is causing problems for corn planting; some areas of the Black sea region experienced 4x average May rainfall.

US markets continue to be supported by soya (Midwest drought), but some analysts feel soya maybe topping out, surprisingly US wheat closed at a 6 week high despite bearish fundamentals. Weaker $ due to employment figures saw potential interest rate rise recede; weaker $ helps US commodities.

Brent crude remains in $49-$50 barrel range

author: Joe Beardshaw


June 03rd

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.


London wheat continued the rise from Wednesday, November 16 wheat closed up £1.60. Wheat found support from other commodities rather than significant fundamentals.

US soya was yesterday up 44 cents / bushel due to concerns about mid-west drought and strong world demand for meal and protein. This increase has dragged up corn but wheat is becoming an increasingly cheaper alternative.

Latest UN forecast has world wheat production for 2016 showing 6 mmt surplus for production over demand, but there are concerns about crops in Canada (Alberta), Brazil and North China.

Extreme rainfall in France (up to 3x average rainfall in May for some areas) has seen some downgrading of yield and quality, some estimates are putting wheat crop down 6.3% compared last year; drier weather is forecast.

UK wheat finding demand, 3 UK vessels are allegedly to load for Asia in June. Higher protein of UK crop giving advantage over Danish supplies and Baltic offers have reduced.

Sterling slightly weaker on continued referendum views; it is estimated an exit vote would weaken sterling 9% and an in vote would strengthen 4%.

Australia forecast to have best wheat crop for 5 years, up 10.7% due to sufficient rain.

Oil slips below $50 as OPEC do not impose output ceiling, feels markets are improving.

author: Joe Beardshaw



May 31st

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

UK and US markets were closed yesterday; Paris was open and registered 0.50 euro losses. London wheat closed Friday down £0.05 on the week and down £1.85 from close on April 30th 2016

French wheat rated good to very good down 2% on week at 83% compared to 91% this time last year.

Mars (EU forecaster) has raised EU 28 wheat yield to 5.85 t/h (+4.5% against 5 year average) but below 2015 crop of 6.02 t/h. Barley yield at 4.99 t/h +5.7% above 5 year average.

UK barley differential to wheat (new crop) reduced to c. £7; £6 would see maximum inclusion in rations; this time last year differential was £18 for 2015 crop.

June forecast for eastern and northern Europe is for warmer than average conditions

Russia anticipating record grain crop of 109.3 mmt (record 108.2 mmt 20080; last year 108.8 mmt, production boosted by corn potential but wheat likely to be second biggest ever

UK exports have reduced carry out to 2.5 mmt up 3% year on year; exports put at 2.75 mmt?? (imports hefty). Barley exports at 1.90 mmt at 19 year high and 27% up on 2015; end of season stocks down 30% compared 2015 at 1.01 mmt.

US markets supported by corn and soya, demand for soya meal has raised prices 54% in 2016 alone; high meal prices has increased corn demand as an alternative.
Ethanol producers are benefitting from higher oil prices with added bonus of rising DDG prices, demand for meal and DDG’s likely to support wheat if price differential continues to increase.

Brent crude hits $50 barrel, first time this year and oil price sup 85% from February lows.

Sterling remains firm on anticipation of remain vote but debate gets increasingly vitriolic and many polls indicate a close prediction, the decision may depend on voter turnout.

author: Joe Beardshaw

May 25th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London wheat closed down 25p yesterday as sterling gained strength, according to recent polls the ‘remain’ vote made ground.

At present the wheat potential is not suffering any crop / weather threats and pacific cooling signifies El Nino is over; however cooler pacific could provoke La Nina which would also bring dry conditions to northern hemisphere.

US markets traded initially down and then recovered. Soya supported by meal demand, wheat is at low levels with Kansas city wheat hitting 9 year lows, this may or may not be a resistance level.

Reports that 80% Ukraine soya and 10% corn are produced from GMO seed; Ukraine forecast to produce 5 mt soya and 26 mt corn.
Increased yields (soya 2.17 t/h) created suspicion as domestic feed demand created opportunities; ‘round up ready’ corn seed available. Inclusion of GMO reported by USDA which has implications as China imports Ukraine grain and bans GMO seed.

Oil continues to firm, brent crude + $49 barrel.

author: Joe Beardshaw



May 18th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London wheat closed up £1.05 yesterday despite sterling making biggest gains for 3 weeks. A reason for firmer UK wheat was the announcement that Ensus was due to re-open in July on a trial basis; lower grain prices help but green energy subsidies will still be required.

Sterling reacted to latest Brexit poll which has 55% remain and 40% leave, a change from April poll of 52% remain and 43% leave, but general opinion has it much closer. Stronger sterling reduces UK export viability, UK undercut by Baltic supplies.

Oil continues to firm, Brent crude fractionally below $50 barrel.

German wheat production for 2016 reduced 2% (1 mmt) from last month as planting survey indicated increase of oilseed area and reduction in wheat.

US markets are being driven by soya, meal demand being the growth engine; soya is pulling up corn and wheat.
Meal stocks in US and South America are 1/3 compared this time last year provoking demand.

US raises steel import tax 522% on specifically Chinese steel, the US are trying to protect from China dumping cheap supplies of cold rolled flat steel (used in manufacturing and construction); this will no doubt lead to counter measures from China.

The US election is causing turmoil for trade, $ likely to have bumpy ride; weaker $ helps $ denominated commodities.

author: Joe Beardshaw



May 16th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.


London wheat registered small gains (c. £1) last week as agricultural commodities generally found support.

UK March 16 wheat exports were 383,000 tonnes, a monthly increase of 28%; barley exports were 300,000t.
Weaker sterling and export demand has helped reduce UK wheat surplus but further export activity will be required, especially as wheat import tonnage has added to the balance sheet. AHDB estimates 2016 UK wheat crop at 14.5 mmt, down from 16 mmt harvested from 2015 crop.

French wheat stocks reduced 4 mmt (29% down from previous month) as exports, especially North Africa continue. French wheat rated 87% good to very good (91% this time last year).

Russian wheat is benefitting from good growing conditions (62.5 mmt?); if this production becomes reality they will be major exporters, export tax has not curtailed exports from 2015 harvest.

Canada predicted to have smallest wheat crop since 1960’s; how much impact this will have on the world market is yet to be seen, especially with big export producing countries showing good potential crops.

US markets have been supported by soya, big demand (+4.6%) for meal and oil. 66% of soya meal demand for meal will be decisive. Oil helped by tight palm oil supplies. Last week’s USDA report highlighted soya demand, this provided spill over support to corn and soya. High price of soya could see some growers switch from corn to soya. However, corn and wheat stocks remain at very high levels.

Wheat tends to follow corn and US corn is benefitting from exports to Brazil as domestic stocks are tight but supplies may appear as Brazil starts harvest.
French corn 78% planted against 89% this time last year.

Sterling remains nervous as debate on Brexit gets hostile between the ins and outs, both using scare tactics.

Brent crude remains just below $48. Any price increase will see Saudi increase production; although Saudi ‘strategy 2030’ aims to reduce reliance on oil and gas (currently 90% of income). They plan to sell shares in national oil company Aramco and expand economy into petrochemical, mining, construction and tourism.

Budweiser plans to temporally rename its beer as ‘America’ to cash in on current national sentiment.

author: Joe Beardshaw



May 04th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.


London wheat 16’crop closed £1.20 down yesterday as lack of bullish news. London wasn’t helped by weaker sterling which fell due to economic figures; UK manufacturing contracted in April first monthly decline for 3 years.

Global wheat crops all appear potentially good apart from north China and Poland.

US markets fell, soya had been the market leader providing ‘spill over’ support to wheat and corn but as it fell it took other commodities with it . Rain in US has seen their winter wheat rating climb to 61% good to excellent from previous 59%; corn planting progressing well.

Russian rouble has strengthened making their grain exports less competitive. Russia talking of supplying water to dry areas of north china

Yesterday Oil fell 2% as plentiful stocks weigh on the market.

Funds can influence markets away from the fundamentals; there is extremely high intensity / speculative trading in Chinese markets, for example steel. It has been estimated a steel futures contract in China is held for an average of 4 hours, whereas an oil futures contract in US is held, on average, 40 hours. Even egg trading in China has outperformed the stock market. With this amount of activity is there a danger of a sudden collapse in Chinese markets??

author: Joe Beardshaw


May 03rd

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London wheat registered gains last week (old + £1.45, new crop + £0.65) making May - Nov carry £11.25, European markets were open yesterday but did not do anything dramatic.

Firmer US markets, especially soya; March soya was supported by oil (palm oil firm) but recent rise has been due to meal demand. 2/3rds of Soya is meal, this has helped crush margins which are 14.2% (10 year average 12.8%). U.S corn is c.47% planted and soya c. 9%; could see acre switch to soya? $ weaker on low growth in US helping $ denominated commodities

Bloomberg commodity index (22 commodity components oil, gold, sugar etc) rose 8.1% in April, out performing other investments e.g shares, this indicates fund investment.

French wheat rated 88% excellent down 4% (this time last year 91%) and winter barley 87% excellent (91% last year), these are still very high rating numbers. French corn 27% planted (11% last week) against 68% this time last year

EU wheat exports last week 599,000 tonnes to total 25.0 mmt (-9% last year). Barley total exports 8.7 mmt (+14% last year).

EU 2016 wheat crop increased to 142.76 mmt from 142.38, stocks at 18.87 mmt. International grain council put at 2016 grain production at 2.006 billion tonnes, up 9 mmt.

UK markets quiet with few sellers as growers nervous of crop conditions and hopeful of rises being sustained.

author: Joe Beardshaw


April 28th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

Markets are very quiet in terms of movement, London wheat closing unchanged.

US markets also quiet with certain amount of ‘profit taking’. Soya supported by flood damage in Argentina and weak $; Fed Char Yellen has indicated that there is no interest rate rise timetable in place.

US corn planting is ahead of normal (currently 30% against normal 16%) and adequate available moisture. French corn planting is accelerating due to drier conditions.

Sterling fell slightly as UK economic growth slows to 0.4% first quarter from previous 0.6%. Sterling has recently been dominated by Brexit debate; latest phone survey has 45% remain and 38% exit. Eight influential economists have backed exit, they have said - leaving would boost UK economy by 4% in 10 years as removal of EU tariffs would reduce UK prices by 8% helping exports.

Oil was knocked back by US stocks, presently at their highest level since 1929, but also helped by weak $; Brent crude currently $47.25.

author: Joe Beardshaw



April 25th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London wheat finished £2 down on Friday but up overall for the week; £1.40 old crop and £0.55 new crop. May – November spread slightly reduced to £12.05.

US markets fell sharply having seen soya rise $1.80, highest in 7 weeks. The scale of the rise has surprised the market, soya underpinned by meal demand (China?) and possible quality problems with South American quality.

EU wheat crops are all looking potentially good, the only exception is Poland where winter crops lost will be replaced with spring wheat. French wheat area at 80 year high but production is estimated down compared last year’s exceptional yields; French wheat currently rated 91% excellent same as this time last year. Germany wheat put at 26.10 mmt down 1.7% but still above 5 year average.

Russia forecast to have record yields and Ukraine crops improving but wheat area is much reduced.

Whilst wheat is looking good cold wet weather is delaying corn planting; France only 11% planted against 47% last year - drilling is 2 weeks behind normal.

Sterling continues to recover as speculation about Brexit reduced with one poll indicating only 20% possibility of exit vote.

Brent crude remains above $45 barrel.

UK land prices fell 3% first quarter of 2016 due to Brexit fears, low commodity prices and CAP payment delays.

author: Joe Beardshaw



April 20th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London wheat closed up c.50p on the day but trade was quiet; the rise was a reaction to other market activity.

US market surged led by soya (closed +30 cents) which went up due to flood damage in Argentina (5% loss of crop?) and continued Brazilian political issues combined with good meal demand. Wheat markets were also firmer due to nervous shorts reducing positions rather than fundamentals.

Tenders for wheat exports to Asia (50,000 tonne cargoes) due next few days, this could possibly be sourced from the UK but the deciding factors will depend on freight and currency; sterling remaining stable at just over 79p against euro.

Russia has experienced good spring growing conditions; if potential becomes reality, the world’s biggest wheat exporter could see record crop of 62.5 mmt. Ukraine has also had an ideal spring (moderate temperatures and ample moisture) but reduced wheat area could see exports down 33%. Romanian wheat production estimated down 9% to 7.2 mmt. Bulgaria similar to last season at 5 mmt.

Oil rises for first time in 5 days, Brent crude close to $44 barrel currently.
Oil strike in Kuwait (OPEC 4th biggest producer) and slightly weaker $ gave market support

author: Joe Beardshaw



April 11th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London wheat fell 15p on Friday but registered gains of 15p for the week. The May – November spread remains £13.50.

UK markets supported by sterling weakness, UK industrial output down 0.5% in February and thus putting pressure on economic performance. The British Chamber of Commerce predicts UK economic growth has ‘softer feeling’. Weaker sterling will help UK exports but there remains plentiful supplies available in Europe.

French wheat rated best in 5 years (wheat 92% good to excellent, winter barley 91% ). Compared last year, French winter crops are ahead in crop development but spring barley 59% emerged compared to 88% this time last year.

US markets firmer with soya supported by meal prices lifting and more expensive Brazilian soya supplies due to currency. Spring wheat area in the US is down 15% (11.3 m. acres v’s 13.25 m. acres) whilst still concern about moisture deficit in winter wheat areas.

Egypt starting their domestic harvest; the Egyptian government has announced ‘corruption in wheat sector will be tackled’. Domestic prices are at premium to world prices as government try to protect domestic production but buyers look at cheaper available imported supplies.

Oil prices up 6% as stocks reduced and increased expectancy that April 17th talks in Doha will achieve production freeze

author: Joe Beardshaw


April 06th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.


London wheat closed up 85p on old crop and £1.25 up on new crop; May – November carry now £13.80.
UK markets supported by weaker sterling, currently €1.2453 and $1.4154 against the £. It is felt economic growth will be subdued due to uncertainty regarding Brexit vote and a slowing world economy. Weaker sterling is helping spot demand for wheat, spot prices appear cheap considering forward carries. Also, corn wheat differential is increasing.

No significant weather markets are appearing, although some reports of potential Black sea and eastern European crop losses.
Morocco may need to import 4 mmt wheat, recent dry weather is expected to cut their production by 54% compared to last year; however last year was a record crop.

There is debate about the level of UK spring barley drilled, reports range from 60% - 80% of English crop planted; 75% safe bet? Shorter growing season can impact on yield and quality (higher nitrogen?). Feed barley feels tight, this is leading to questions about supply / demand numbers (more fed on farm?). Lack of French exports to China means UK price rises will be limited, especially with new crop approaching; traditionally UK exports cease from March.

U.S markets saw soya retreat after recent rally; Brazilian real weakens and biodiesel stocks are heavy. Ethanol, a big user of corn, has seen production exceed demand, US ethanol even exported to Brazil.

Mineral oil prices are down, stockpiles increase as Iran ramps up production, this is putting further pressure on the upcoming Doha meeting set for the April 17th and that is aimed at curbing production.

author: Joe Beardshaw


April 04th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London wheat closed up £1.50 on Friday, weekly gain of £1 old crop and £1.25 new crop. May – November carry is £13.50 and May 16 – May 17 £20+.

US markets slightly recovered from Thursdays USDA report, soya reached a 7 month high. Despite bearish planting for corn area, it was reluctant to go down further, prices are already low and corn crop has whole growing season / weather ahead of it.

For the first half of April, Europe is forecast to have above average temperatures, aiding crop development. Regular rain will be required, especially if temperatures warm up; some opinions feel dry April is beneficial for root establishment.

French wheat rated 92% good to excellent (91% last year at this time), winter barley 91% good to excellent (91% last year) and spring barley 98% planted with 85% emerged (70% last year).

IGC estimates world wheat crop 2016-17 at 713 mmt (-3%) but world corn production increased 2.2% (993 mmt). World wheat stocks down 3 mmt to 67 mmt and world corn down 1 mmt to 58 mmt.

Sterling hits 16 month low against euro (80p), latest UK manufacturing output at lowest levels since 2013, economy maybe stalling. Sterling also very susceptible to Brexit situation.

Oil slumped 4% as Saudi states it will only cut production if other major producers follow, especially Iran, who intend to increase production after sanctions lifted; Iran not present at oil meeting in Doha on 17 April. Saudi also intends to reduce reliance on oil income by selling stake in the state oil firm Aramco.

author: Joe Beardshaw



March 29th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London wheat closed up 25p on Thursday to consolidate weekly gains of £1.90 old crop and £1.60 new crop, currently the May 16 – November 16 carry is £13.75 and May 16 – May 17 is £20.95.

This is the time of year when crop conditions are monitored and production estimates are published. The latest from MARS has EU wheat production down 5%, but corn up 11% as last season’s weather boosted wheat but hampered corn. French wheat is 92% good to excellent and winter barley 93% good to excellent.

After the second wettest UK winter since detailed records began, crops are showing big variations in condition, ‘the good, the bad and the ugly’!
Crops have sat in wet conditions and spring drilling is taking place but seed beds are far from ideal; it is too early to predict but yield would appear to be vulnerable.

US markets were open to trade yesterday, wheat saw gains as there continues to be concern about dryness in the plains.
Non-commercials still have a large short position in wheat and will look to reduce exposure; however they have been long in soya and benefitted from rising prices. There is a USDA report this week, this will give a planting survey and may give market direction.

Egypt recently bought 60,000 tonnes of French wheat, French ports are currently very busy but need to shift the surplus.

Dry weather in Ethiopia has led to widespread suffering and hunger; 10 ships carrying 450,000t grain are waiting to unload but poor infrastructure is not helping.

E.U forecast for spring malting barley is 9.29 mmt, this is 400,000t down compared last year (due reduced area) but this would still mean 500,000 tonne surplus. New varieties producing good yields of low nitrogen barley, combined with fertiliser restrictions (e.g Denmark) are creating concerns about too much low nitrogen barley, higher nitrogen barley aids yeast development.

Sterling has marginally firmed from end of last week. Brazilian central bank steps in to slow rise of ‘real’ which had made their exports more expensive helping US trade

Oil remains c. $40 barrel; last week’s terrorist events has made all markets nervous with investors looking for minimal risk markets

author: Joe Beardshaw


March 21st

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

Grain markets generally had a quiet week, London wheat was up 10p on Friday, but on the week, old crop wheat was down 45p and new crop down 10p. US markets were also quiet, ignoring current cold weather in the plains; markets wait for USDA report due 31st March this may have a surprise in corn acres planted?

Market direction currently being driven by weather, currency and politics.

Weather has not really featured, European crops coming out of winter dormancy in satisfactory condition and Europe’s wheat crop for 2016 is estimated to be similar to last year.
U.K wheat crop forecast 14.8 – 15.0 mmt down on last year but would still mean exportable surplus; some reports of crop condition and disease levels may affect quality and yield.

Currency remains nervous, although the euro remains c. 1.28 against the pound; the CBI is the latest body to warn of the threat to UK economy from Brexit. $ has weakened helping $ denominated commodities.
Russian rouble has firmed, making their wheat more expensive in world markets, it is estimated they still have 4.9 mmt wheat to export before next harvest; Romanian, French and Ukrainian wheat all undercutting Russian supplies.

Oil down last few days but comfortably $40+, up from previous recent lows of $28; weaker $ helping support values.

author: Joe Beardshaw


March 17th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London wheat was up c. 50p yesterday as sterling fell. Sterling fell to a 2 week low on the back of a budget that gave a gloomy economic forecast. Sterling / euro currently €1.2675, in November it was €1.40+; Brexit continues add pressure.

UK wheat exports have been put at 310,000t, although some Jan exports will appear in Feb numbers. This brings the total wheat so far this season to 1.302 mmt, seasonal barley total 1.036mmt. However seasonal wheat imports are 1.014 mmt and maize 1.157 mmt. Weaker sterling will help export programme.

US wheat markets fell, dryness in the plains has become stale news and the predicted cold weather is not as bad as anticipated. More importantly (possibly), delays in corn planting are due to wet conditions in corn areas, this means later crops will be pollinating during hot period which can have major impact on yields; but still months away!

Egypt bought French, Romanian and Ukrainian wheat at recent tender. Offers were less and prices were higher due to the ergot situation.

Oil recovered losses as US stock pile is less than previously thought, OPEC have announced a meeting for the 17th April the meeting is expected to focus on how to curb production.

author: Joe Beardshaw



March 14th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London wheat was slightly weaker / unchanged Friday but on the week, old crop was +90p and new crop + £1.50, making May – November spread £13.45

Coceral published their crop predictions for 2016:
EU wheat estimated 145.2 mmt (-3.5% year on year), barley 58.9 mmt (-3.6%), corn 63.2 mmt (+8%).
All major producers (France, Germany, UK, Poland) predicting down year on year but Spain up.
UK wheat crop 15.0 mmt (-6.9%), barley 7.1 mmt (-2%), OSR 2.15 mmt (-15%).

French wheat rating reduced by 1% but it is still 93% ‘good to excellent’ and barley is reduced by 2%, 91% ‘good to excellent’.
Ukraine winterkill is not as bad as previously thought in January, however a lot of crops still remain ‘weak’.
Dry weather is forecast for western Europe over the next 7 days helping field work (jet stream shifted north); Spain should have beneficial rain

US markets supported by soybeans are approaching 2016 highs, this is supported by stronger Brazilian currency reducing their exports.
Funds slightly reduced their short position but dry weather in US plains are continuing to make the market nervous.
USDA report on the 21st March will publish stocks and plantings, this has a habit of creating market surprises.

Sterling slightly stronger despite lower UK growth figures; referendum continues to influence.

Oil remains firm with the exports.

author: Joe Beardshaw

March 07th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London wheat closed up (c. £0.50) on Friday to make 2 days of positive movements. Afternoon trade saw values retreat from morning highs and London wheat was down 50p-£1.00 on the week. May – November spread extends to £12.85

US markets were also up, this time supported by soya beans as corruption scandal in Brazil actually supported ‘real’, making Brazilian exports more expensive.
US wheat concerns about dry plains continues to make shorts nervous. In general US commodities appear to be on the rise, oil continuing to firm could increase bioethanol production / demand, copper is a 4 month high, lumber is at a 6 month high, oil 2 month high in US.

2016 world wheat area estimated down 1.4%, low prices curtail production but stocks remain plentiful.

French wheat rated 94% good to very good (91% this time last year) and growth stages ahead of normal due to mild conditions.

Russian grain production forecast 5 mmt down year on year but winterkill estimated 9% against normal 12%. Russian corn record crop? Ukraine wheat production for 2016 estimated down 20% due to dry autumn.

It is reported that 14% French spring barley has been drilled (34% this time last year), only 6% has emerged, progress is hampered due to conditions similar to UK.

El Nino affects southern Africa with drought causing major crop production issues; in northern Africa, Morocco is seeing their harvest potentially cut by 50%.

author: Joe Beardshaw

March 04th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

Global wheat markets firmed up yesterday, London closed up £1.25 but fundamentals remain bearish.

Latest UK wheat numbers from Defra suggest domestic usage has reduced and production slightly increased. It has been reported that by the end of March, 2 million tonnes (?) will have been exported, leaving 1.5-2 mmt for end of season exports; although current £12.50 May – November spread is an incentive to hold.

UN predicts 723 mmt wheat crop for 2016 (most other forecasts c. 708 mmt), 2015 crop has been reduced by 3.8 mmt to 733 mmt.

US wheat markets are up partly due to dry warm weather in plains, but more likely short covering, funds are nervous about any bullish news with historic short position.

Some weather / crop reports appearing:
Ukraine wheat down 28% but this maybe ‘worst case scenario’ and weather through to harvest could boost yields.
Morocco, Africa’s number 2 wheat nation, may need to double imports to 4.76 mmt due to drought (benefit French exports).
Indian government projects 93.8 mmt harvest above trade estimates of 82-89 mmt, but imports maybe required.
French and Russian crops look potentially good.

Grain markets helped by weaker $ and Brazilian real surged as president Rouseff is facing possible corruption charges (reducing their exports) .
EU wheat getting cheaper compared to EU corn, this is increasing demand prospects for wheat.

author: Joe Beardshaw


March 02nd

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

Wheat markets suffered a day of losses, the overriding bearish sentiment sucked the life out of the markets. Old crop London fell £1.90 and new crop was down £1.65. London set contract lows for March 16, its lowest levels since June 2010 (£99.75).

Market sentiment dominated by heavy stocks and no weather / bearish factors appearing, although there is still time for crop problems to occur.

UK struggling to find new export business, Russia remaining aggressive sellers due to rouble weakness and lack of ice keeping their ports open. Estimated Russian exports from 2015 crop wheat 24.5 mmt (USDA estimate 23.5 mmt) and corn 4.6 mmt (USDA estimate 3.8 mmt).

Sterling slightly firmer for 4th day in row against euro, investors question extent of the decline due to ‘Brexit’; the bookmakers favourite continues to remain the ‘In vote ‘. Euro still has Greek economic problems to face and UK agitation could spread to other members.

US markets also down on bearish factors with soya beans breaking technical resistance levels and corn trading at new crop contract lows.

French corn area for 2016 estimated 6% down due to bigger wheat area.

Oil continues to firm with funds building long position as expectation production reduction (due to price / voluntary agreement) and demand increasing due to economic stimulus

author: Joe Beardshaw
February 25th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

Yesterday London wheat fell again as weaker sterling failed to halt the slide.

Sterling fell below $1.40 for first time since May 2009,and with speculation it may fall to $1.35.
Sterling also fell against the euro, currently 1.26 / 79p, although euro also weaker against $ due to Brexit situation.

International monetary fund is ‘positive’ about UK, but there are risks and uncertainties: global growth, sluggish UK production, household debt, Brexit. Carney even hinted interest rate cuts.

UK markets not helped by latest Defra wheat numbers, production increased from 2016 harvest by 273,000 tonnes to 16.444 mmt (largest since 2008. Consumption reduced by 111,000 tonnes to 14.660 mmt due to reduced livestock feed demand. More imported grain into the UK has increased surplus by 415,000 tonnes to 3.964 mmt, up 38% year on year.

US markets are down, led by falling wheat markets due to rain improving US wheat crop prospects. Corn supported by increased ethanol production; mineral oil also firmer.

Russian wheat area is down 3% for 2016 crop, export taxes have curtailed production. Ukraine production is also down, exports from eastern Europe will be reduced 2016 crop.

author: Joe Beardshaw

February 24th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London wheat futures followed other wheat markets down, old crop down £1+ and new crop down c. 75p.

With little bullish news (no weather concerns/ plentiful supplies) values were not helped by lower stock markets and falling oil prices, down 5%.

UK markets will be aided by weaker sterling which continues to suffer due to Brexit situation, some polls put a winning exit vote at 40%.Sterling currently at a 7 year low against $; Goldman Sachs are talking of $1.15 if UK votes to leave EU.

US markets also suffered big losses due to lack of bullish news and slow exports; US wheat closing at 5 year lows.

Ukraine wheat production for 2016 estimated 30% (17.3 mmt) down before any weather problems; production down reduced area and poor crop condition. Unplanted area likely to be spring planted with corn & sunflowers

One commodity firming up is sugar, up 9%; rise attributed to reduced supplies and world deficit, production reduction forecast down in EU.

author: Joe Beardshaw

February 18th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.


London wheat was down 15p, but on very thin trade.

Demand to the ports coupled with limited farmer selling has seen an increase in physical prices, these prices have not been reflected in futures trading.

Currency has recently been more influential in grain prices and ‘crunch time’ regarding Uk concessions / EU membership, sterling is likely to react. EU reluctant to yield too much ground, fearing it could spread restlessness with other members.

Oil continues to recover up 8%. Venezuela raised its domestic fuel prices for the first time in 20 years, their economy struggles with low oil revenue (premium oil raised from $0.01 to $0.60 litre = 40p).

US markets rise due to stronger oil prices and above normal temperature in southern plains threatening winter wheat; funds are nervous, they are extremely short.

Egypt accepts 0.05 ergot tolerance but rejects Canadian cargo. There has been speculation that the cause of delivery problems is a result of financial shortages. 0% ergot pushed up prices as sellers having to buy expensive insurance against rejection.

Eastern Europe weather continues to conflict with the opinion of crop conditions.

author: Joe Beardshaw


February 16th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London wheat closed up c. 20p yesterday as it followed other firmer markets. Sterling remains nervous ahead of this weeks ‘crucial’ summit regarding UK membership.

Matif wheat was firmer as Euro was weaker, Draghi alluded to further financial easing. Egypt rejected latest tender with French wheat offered the cheapest.

Stock markets are firmer following market rise in Japan.

Oil continues to rise with Brent crude +1% but Iran loads first oil cargo for Europe since sanctions imposed

On the negative side, funds increase their short position provoked by USDA bearish numbers on world wheat stocks and US wheat condition improving.
Indian wheat crop prospects are better than expected due cooler wet conditions (latest government forecast 94 mmt against trade predictions 75-84mmt), harvest starts March – April

UK exports are busy March & April.
Imports to Spain are forecast to be down but wheat tonnage may increase as wheat discount has increased to corn.

Reports of increased rust disease in UK wheat, conditions and growers are unable to get onto fields because of the wet.

author: Joe Beardshaw

February 12th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London wheat closed 75p up on the day, market sentiment went from ultra-bearish to short term semi bearish. UK wheat export is revised slightly up to 1 mmt end December (as expected).
Demand to the ports, in the spot position, has seen physical values against futures widen, growers remain reluctant sellers.
On paper, there are plentiful amounts of wheat available but with the May – November carry currently at £12, there is an incentive to hold.

Currency has recently been given market direction. The Euro is currently 1.28 to the £ (1st December 1.42+), this is helping UK in export markets; ‘Brexit’ and poor economic numbers is leading some analysts to predict a fall to 1.20 before recovery. $ is also weaker after Chair J.Yellen of the Fed confirmed no further interest rate rises were imminent, weaker $ supports agricultural commodities.

US markets were helped by weaker $ and firmer oilseed / bean markets as world palm oil stocks reduced.
Funds were buying as they reduced shorts, there were rumours that one major fund wanting to ‘liquidate’ all ag commodity positions.

Markets appeared to have factored in Monday’s bearish USDA report, world wheat stocks increased by 7 mmt to record 238.9 mmt (+ 20 mmt last season).

French markets still nervous after cargo rejects in Egypt due to ergot

Recent rise in oil prices, a ‘false dawn’ according to International energy Agency; they expect stocks to grow by 2 million barrels a day in the first quarter 2016 (demand down, production up)
Currently brent crude c. $30 having hit 13 year low, January $27.67; June 2014 it was $112.

On the fundamental side, disastrous Indian harvests will mean increased imports, there is also concern of winterkill in Ukraine / Russia (spring drought biggest threat to eastern Europe crops); however heavy stocks are insurance against supply threats.

With stock and oil markets continuing to struggle there has been a switch of investment into gold and government bonds, will agricultural commodities have appeal as investment opportunity? Chance of La Nina after El Nino is predicted up, this can impact on grain areas e.g U.S corn belt.

Chinese markets closed as they celebrate new year and year of the monkey starts.

author: Joe Beardshaw
February 11th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London May 16 wheat contract closed up by 50p on yesterday’s trading, Nov 16 up 70p; the May 16 Nov 16 spread is still substantial at £12.

French wheat hit its lowest price in 5 months, however later in the day trading turned the price round to end the day on a gain of 1.8%.

The recent WASDE report continued the bearish sentiment on grains, added to which US ethanol stocks have hit new highs. The US is also experiencing its longest slump of corn exporting, not helped by reports that Russia has banned US corn and soy due to misleading quality certificates.

Suggestions of US rate rises through 2016 give the dollar strength, but weaken the export competitiveness, if and when the dollar weakens it may open up another supply of grain to the world market.

Argentina has benefited from significant rain to end the long spell of dryness.

Brent crude prices are moving sideways, but have come down from a recent rally in over the last 3 weeks, they are back at prices last seen in mid Jan.

author: Joe Beardshaw



January 28th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London closed £1.40 down on old crop and 80p down on new crop, the UK followed weaker European markets. May – November spread now £10.65

European markets were spooked by Russian rumours. Previously markets lifted by talk of Russia increasing grain export duties. Latest rumours are they may remove duties on wheat exports but impose them on barley and corn. Even if Russia exited wheat exports there are enough other eager sellers. The weakness of the rouble makes Russian grain ‘cheap’.

US markets are quiet, wheat down, soya up and corn neutral. The Federal reserve left interest rates unchanged, the US economy is slowing, global equity markets are down and there are inflation concerns. This should weaken $, weaker $ should help agricultural commodities.

South American weather have conflicting reports, Argentina is dry (corn) whilst Brazil (corn and soya) ‘never looked so beautiful’.

Generally, La Nina follows El Nino; if La Nina materialises it could cause hot dry conditions for US corn areas, but it is not certain La Nina will follow.

UK markets are being influenced by sterling, presently slightly weaker as the latest Brexit referendum polls have it split 50-50. Possible exit would damage sterling, but a UK exit could also weaken Europe / euro.

Oil continues to have modest gains.

author: Joe Beardshaw

January 25th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

On Friday, London wheat traded £1 down, 2015 crop down £1.70 on the week and 2016 crop down £2.20 on the week; the May – November carry is now £9. U.K wheat has fallen largely due to currency, sterling firming to 1.32+ (.756p) against the euro.

Currency will be influential in trade when there are so many supplies available.

Since President Macri came to power the Argentinian peso has fallen 40%, combined with reduced export levies, this has meant Argentinean wheat is well placed.

Oil has had a minor recovery, having fallen 18% since start of the year it has now recovered 6%, and is currently c. $32 barrel.

A slowing Chinese economy and a 12 year low oil price makes markets nervous, IMF revising world growth in 2016 down to 3.4% from 3.6% forecast in October.

Ukraine and Russia has been experiencing heavy rain, many areas have had 3 times the seasonal average.

US markets, especially corn, has been showing market resilience as commercial demand supports prices.

author: Joe Beardshaw

January 12th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London wheat lost much of Fridays gains, closing 80p - £1.50 down in various positions. The May - November spread has increased to £9.25.

Markets continue to come under pressure, oil fell to a 12 year low (exceeding the 2008 fall) to trade at $31.41 barrel. Copper reached 6 year lows, however Chinese stocks bounced.

UK export figures for November did not encourage the market. November wheat exports were 138,000t, bringing seasonal total to 656,000t; maize imports were 260,000t to total 816,000t for season. Barley exports were 120,000 to total 620,000t.

USDA report is due today and pre report rumours are for increased US stocks due to slow exports; this may have been factored into the market causing recent falls.

Funds are very short on agricultural commodities and short covering could produce a price spike, especially if USDA is not as bearish as anticipated.

South America continues to be an aggressive seller of corn, soya, and wheat due to weak currency (Brazil / Argentina) and easing of export restrictions (Argentina).

author: Joe Beardshaw
January 05th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

The Chinese new year is on February 8th and it will herald the year of the monkey but 2016 markets started more like the year of the bear with London wheat down £2.0+ yesterday.
Falls in the Chinese stock market spread to financial markets which in turn affected agricultural commodities, US corn and wheat reaching with new contract lows.

With markets at low levels the ongoing weather concerns affecting sentiment should have given some stability but this was trumped by economic turmoil.

There are reports that 25% of Ukraine’s wheat crop has been affected by 3 days of cold temperatures and insufficient snow cover, however warmer temperatures are forecast.

El Niño may change to la Nina which potentially could have increased weather disruption to world crops

Oil prices picked up slightly on increased middle east tension, although an analyst recently predicted oil trading at $20 barrel in 2016.

A glimmer of bullish news is that eastern Europe is experiencing cold conditions and extreme wet conditions in western Europe is not helping crops with growers unable to get on fields to combat disease and pest threats

Plentiful stocks overhang the market, Korea bought south American origin wheat and corn (Egypt bought Argentinean wheat) showing there are aggressive sellers about.

Sterling forecast to weaken whilst European referendum features; interest rate rise maybe postponed. Even if sterling weakens Russian and Ukrainian currency is considerably worse and is helping their exports.

author: Joe Beardshaw


January 04th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

At the end of 2015 London wheat was down 14.5% on the year, Paris wheat -13.3%, European corn -11%, rapeseed was + 6.6%.

Last year saw large volumes of wheat carried over from 2014 into 2015; currently the carry from 2015 into 2016 is comparatively much bigger so there is the likelihood of again a big carryout subject space and financial constraints.

In previous years, when grain markets rally in the new year, it has been due to weather threats; weather is certainly making headlines. The difference to previous years is that stocks are much greater now offering ‘insurance’

NASA has forecast the current El Niño to be as bad as 1998. Excessive rainfall is a feature in many areas (South America, mid west, Europe etc) and France experienced second warmest Christmas day on record.

Cold weather is affecting Russia and Ukraine with temperatures reaching -20C in some areas. Recent snowfall may have arrived in time to prevent winterkill, 10 cm of snow is required to protect against -20C.

2016 Global economy / markets have so far not improved, Chinese share trading halted as 7% falls triggered ‘circuit breakers’.

Oil up on early trading today but Saudi Arabia is maintaining its production and stocks continue to build. The situation between Saudi and Iran could have an impact if tensions increase. OPEC plan to keep up production to try and make U.S shale gas industry struggle to compete. This tactic has not worked so far and US see shale energy as strategically important.

author: Joe Beardshaw

December 30th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London wheat traded slightly up on thin trade yesterday.

Currently London wheat is down 16% on the year, European wheat –14%, European corn -11%, but rapeseed +6%. Wheat globally had its third consecutive bumper harvest increasing surplus stocks; European corn production was down but with plentiful wheat this was ignored. The chance of problem free production for a fourth consecutive year is statistically very low, but even with a problem the surplus will absorb some of the potential increase in price.

Weather around the world is making headlines ; dry north Africa (bullish), wet south America (bearish), wet northern Europe and U.S. Lack of snow cover in Russia / Ukraine is a concern, especially with cold conditions forecast and plants not ‘robust’. Latest crop report from Ukraine 30.8% good (29.8% last week) but this time last year the figure was 40.7%.

U.K exports c. 1 million tonnes by the end of year, this will leave a big surplus to shift; January looks busy but little beyond – reluctant sellers and fewer buyers.

US markets bounced on weather influence but with funds very short any major threat could see ‘panic buying’; although funds have switched out of agricultural commodities.

U.K is struggling to compete in export markets; French wheat ignored in favour of South American wheat in recent Egyptian tender; Egypt state they have enough wheat until May.

Some analysts are predicting a weaker sterling due to uncertainty of EU vote; currently £ / $ is 1.48 with forecast of a decline to $1.41.

Oil recovered slightly yesterday but oil in March 2012 was $125 barrel now $38 barrel. Saudi Arabia has $98billion budget deficit due to oil price fall (77% revenue from oil)

author: Joe Beardshaw
December 24th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

Not surprisingly the markets are very quiet, London 15 crop unchanged but November 16 up 40p; the spread between May 16 and Nov 16 is currently £7.95.

London supported by weaker sterling (1.36 against euro) on the back of disappointing economic numbers.

For the first time in 3 years Egypt bought Argentinean wheat in latest tender, undercutting French wheat by $10. This may be due to the change of government in Argentina, removing export restrictions and also a weaker currency; Ukraine supplies did not feature in the tender and appear to be tightening.

MARS, the European crop bureau, stated European crops could be vulnerable to a cold snap, recent mild conditions have not made them frost tolerant; no cold weather forecast.

Cofco, the Chinese state owned agricultural trader has increased its global profile by buying Nobel agriculture; they are active in 29 countries, employ 9,500 and have annual sales of $14.9 billion.

Oil recovers slightly and OPEC predicts $70 barrel by 2020 href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-35166467" class="nlink">


author: Joe Beardshaw


December 22nd

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

Wheat markets continue to track sideways, with small losses on London wheat yesterday negating last week's gains.

Markets will be influenced by weather, currency, politics but fundamentals of supply greater than demand overhangs market and limits rises. Funds have been buying but more due to profit taking / book squaring before Christmas break.

Sterling fell against euro partly due to Spanish election result, Argentinean peso devalued 25% making their exports more competitive.

EU wheat area for 2016 largely unchanged although France will increase slightly
Despite this spread between May 16 and Nov 16, currently £7.55, some analysts think this may increase; Wheat price £120 at 4% interest per annum = less than 50p month carry.

Russia has a habit of surprises on 25 December (they celebrate Christmas in January) e.g invaded Afghanistan on 25 Dec and Gorbachev resigned 25 Dec. Rumours are they may scrap export tax to sell surplus wheat due to weaker rouble (oil price related) and possibly indicating confidence in 2016 crop potential

Russian / Ukraine crop condition makes them vulnerable but the damage will not be apparent until spring.
At present weather is not having an impact, although it is dry in South America, especially Brazil, which will help soya prices.

Oil continues to fall, brent crude is the lowest since 2004. Heavy supplies weigh on the market, producers continue to swell stocks but with current price below expectations how much further is the downside?

Bee populations in some US states are down 23%, this has been attributed to increased biofuel production i.e corn. Bee pollination is vital to US crops, estimated to be worth $3 billion and could affect crop production.

The World Trade Organisation reached an agreement to reduce agricultural subsidies aimed to help poorer nations compete.

author: Joe Beardshaw
December 11th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.


London wheat fell 60p yesterday having been up £1 on Wednesday. Sterling firmed marginally against the euro despite Bank of England voting 8 – 1 to keep interest rates on hold.

Wednesdays USDA report has been perceived as mildly bearish, it highlighted plentiful global supplies and stocks.

E.U stocks put at 8 year high, French wheat double the ‘normal’ as exports are not keeping up with supply. Reports are that autumn plantings in France (wheat and barley) may increase at the expense of spring drillings.

Whilst reports have focused on supply, demand has not been highlighted, this may be reduced due a mild autumn (feed demand, bird flu) and biofuel down (Abengoa).

Attention will switch to northern hemisphere wheat harvest and any crop scares (Ukraine, Russia) but stocks give some insurance.

US markets were firmer on corn and wheat despite nothing fundamentally changing. Corn, soya and wheat are near 5 year lows and appear reluctant to break lower, does this mean the lows are established? Funds are very short, there may be short covering and position reducing before the Christmas break.

Oil prices continue to struggle, despite US stocks reducing for tax reasons rather than increased demand.

author: Joe Beardshaw
December 08th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.


London was up nearly £1 yesterday but it has been within this range for the last few months. European wheat and corn markets have also been tracking sideways, but the fundamentals of plentiful wheat supplies overhang the market.

UK supply / demand has not been helped by continued mild weather, reducing domestic demand for livestock feed.

U.S markets lost some of the recent gains due to stronger $ and reduced crop concerns due to rain in Midwest & Plains. Funds have increased their short position in wheat, USDA report due Wednesday.

83% of the Ukraine winter plantings has emerged, 1.1 m. hectares still to emerge; of the emerged crops 66% rated good / satisfactory, meaning 1.9 m. hectares weak / thin. Russian crops helped by recent moisture.

Oil prices fell to lowest levels since 2009 after OPEC decided not reduce production. Saudi Arabia has a budget deficit and dwindling foreign currency reserves but it is maintaining a policy of maximising market share. Their strategy of keeping oil cheap will delay further shale gas developments. Fall in oil prices has seen Russian rouble fall, making Russian wheat cheaper.

Thursday will see a new government takes office in Argentina; there are rumours of cutting soya export tax from 35% to 30%; less than expected, keeping Argentinean soya expensive.

author: Joe Beardshaw


November 23rd

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London wheat was down 50p on Friday to total a weekly decline of 20p. Sterling is near an 8 year high against euro, this is making exports difficult, especially with aggressive sellers elsewhere. Strong sterling not only hits exports, it increases imports, especially ‘quality’ wheats. European corn markets were up 1 euro on the week.

AHDB forecast for 2016 U.K crop area has wheat unchanged; winter barley down 4% and spring barley up 10%. Any reduction in yield will be compensated by weighty carry outs after two consecutive 16+ million tonne crops.

IGC has 2015 world wheat crop at 726 mmt but reduced carryout by 1 mmt to 208 mmt, however this is still up on last season’s 201 mmt.

EU granted export licenses for 636,000 tonnes of wheat last week, up 58% from previous week and largest weekly total of the season. Export pace is behind required rate to shift surplus and significantly less than this time last year.

Ukraine likely to limit exports to 16.6 mmt wheat this season (so far they have shipped 8.4 mmt).
Macri wins Argentinean election with pre-election promise to lift export restrictions.

Allegedly 60,000t barley boat loading in U.K in the next few weeks, but the expected surge in export demand for barley is hampered by currency and China reducing import requirement. Variable quality of Australian malting barley may increase feed supplies but reduce malting.

Based on the fundamentals of supply and demand, the current sentiment on wheat markets is bearish. For there to be a change in sentiment, some crop threat needs to emerge to add ‘momentum’, a Bloomberg survey of traders had 5 bulls, 9 bears, 9 neutral.

author: Joe Beardshaw
November 17th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London wheat traded down 30p on 2015 crop and down 55p on 2016 crop.

Port and consumer shorts coupled with meagre farm sellers have supported UK domestic prices. Low water in the Rhine and questions over Black sea supplies has pushed up expected U.K wheat exports to 1 mmt by Christmas but there is a substantial tonnage of imports to shift.

U.S markets were quiet yesterday, registering a very low volume of trade with wheat slightly weaker. Mexico bought 1.44 mmt of corn (old and new) and commercial interest indicates current low prices are provoking demand. Maybe it is case of ‘best cure for low prices is low prices’.

With funds short any global supply issues will have increased impact.

U.S. $ has nearly reached a 12 year high against basket of currencies, European events and expectation of a rise in U.S. interest rates saw U.S investment, however the strong $ has negative influence on $ denominated commodities.

author: Joe Beardshaw
November 13th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

Wheat trade is very quiet, few buyers matched by few sellers; London wheat was 10p down on the Thursday.

Whilst other commodities such as metals and oil had a down day agricultural commodities did well to hold their ground. Continued concern about Chinese growth has been the reason for commodity falls.

Egypt bought equal amounts of Russian and French wheat at the latest tender.

Wheat stocks and supplies are well documented, attention may switch to corn which will become the market leader.

U.S Wheat recovered some of the USDA inspired losses, the trade felt the fall may have been overdone. Funds that are short are nervously monitoring Australian harvest (rain delayed eastern harvest) and crop development in eastern Europe.

Corn continues to come under pressure but how much further is the downside in U.S? World corn stocks are not as weighty as wheat and over 50% of world stocks are located in China. The Chinese corn inventories are forecasted to fall for first time in 6 years.

Liz Truss is due to sign an agreement this week with China that will mean the U.K will become an ‘approved’ supplier of barley to China, possibly provoking export business post-Christmas.

author: Joe Beardshaw

November 10th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London wheat traded 50p down yesterday as bearish factors outweighed any bullish sentiment.

U.K exports continue to struggle with the estimated 900,000 tonnes by end of December, failing to put a dent in the exportable surplus, especially when wheat and corn imports are considered.
Despite better quality and a big crop, French exports to the end of September are down year on year (3.81 mmt v’s 3.94 mmt); better quality has helped north Africa exports but the big fall attributed to reduced Spanish business.

To add to the bearish woes, US wheat markets took a big hit yesterday down c. 20 cents, wheat hit resistance at $5.30.
USDA report due today, this may fuel the bearish argument of plentiful supplies and reduced demand (low export numbers).

Support for the wheat market had been coming from crop conditions in eastern Europe and the threat of El Niño, whilst these could be very bullish factors they are not yet a reality, the hefty supplies and low demand are fact, these are factored in with the carries forward.

author: Joe Beardshaw
November 09th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London wheat had a quiet trading day on Friday and closed the week at only a few pence different to the start of the week. Currency was an influence last week with £ / euro reaching 1.42 before retreating to 1.40 as expectation of interest rate rise receded.

$ was stronger on jobs data (jobs created 271,000 higher than expected) and expectation of interest rate rise = stronger $, weaker $ denominated commodities. Euro weaker helping exports but behind the pace required to shift surplus.

UK customs data actually had U.K importing more wheat than exported to the end of December (314,000 exported , 432,000 imported); exports have improved since September but after two 16 million tonne crops supplies are plentiful especially with the biofuel plants shuts down / reduced usage and a mild autumn reducing the demand for animal feed.
Prices supported by lack of farmer selling but this could mean problems long term when they do sell, unless exports dramatically improve.

USDA report tomorrow - World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Market shorts are kept nervous by crop condition in eastern Europe with rumours Ukraine may try and curb exports. Ukraine wheat area could be down 19% meaning production down 30% and much reduced export availability, however in contrast, French wheat rated 97% good to very good.

China continues to struggle with exports and imports are down; China has been the economic engine for global growth.

Lack of rainfall in India has seen domestic prices firm, added to which hoarding takes place as consumers try to secure supplies.

author: Joe Beardshaw
November 06th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

Yesterday London wheat closed up c. 50p, this was largely attributed to currency, sterling fell against the euro.

Bank of England monetary committee voted 8-1 to maintain interest rates the same; a level unchanged for the last 6.5 years. Interest rate rise has been delayed as the inflation risk has reduced due to slower global growth.

U.S markets were weaker, apart from wheat which defied gravity, it has remaining unchanged despite rain in the grain belt improving prospects.
Corn fell due to plentiful supplies and soya is down on poor export numbers, but remains significantly cheaper than south American origin. USDA report is due next Tuesday.

U.K exports remain sluggish although rumours of 25000t vessel sales persist; however 1 mm tonnes by Christmas remains optimistic. Growers remain reluctant sellers, this is lending some support although November is traditionally a selling month, meaning more physical wheat to move.

U.N food committee said food prices rose 3.9% October biggest monthly rise since Feb 2012, this was due to sugar + 6.2% and palm oil + 17.2% with cereals up 1.7%.

author: Joe Beardshaw
November 02nd

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London wheat closed 50p down on Friday but slightly firmer on the week.

US wheat markets up possibly as funds buy to reduce short position but technical analysts feel upside unless wheat breaks $5.30 which would indicate trend change. U.S soya beans now cheapest supply, if China buys they will be sourced from U.S.

Sterling gains against euro and expectation for euro to remain weak, this should help European wheat values; European price rises will influence U.K. However exports from E.U are lagging despite Egypt last week buying European wheat; worryingly, last week E.U corn imports were bigger than combined wheat and barley exports.

Latest IGC figures have global wheat area for 2016 down 1.2 million hectares but the total still above 5 year average. Production could be further decrease as area has slightly reduced but growers have cut inputs to save cost and this is resulting in lower yields.

El Niño impact being blamed for southern hemisphere crop concerns, Argentinean wheat crop has been put at 9.5 mmt; -16% year on year. Heat and moisture stress in Australia, especially New South Wales (30% wheat production), and hail and frost hitting western Australia.

Chinese manufacturing down for third month in a row, hitting far east stock markets.

U.S employment numbers will be published today this could impact $ and therefore affecting commodity markets.

author: Joe Beardshaw
October 27th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

May London wheat closed up £1.80 yesterday as London reluctantly followed firmer U.S and European markets.

U.S wheat markets unexpectedly rose due to weather concerns making shorts nervous; funds are at shortest position on wheat since May 2014. U.S plains did not receive the expected rain, dry conditions persist.

Dry and cold weather is forecast for the Ukraine and Russia over the next two weeks, this will threaten poorly established plants; eastern Europe is generally experiencing dry conditions.

Russian winter plantings is 90% + complete but Ukraine is behind planting; revised winter area 5.8 m hectares against 6.7 m hectares (2015 crop).
2015 Ukraine wheat crop was 24.2 mmt; reduced area could see this fall to 19 mmt, although unplanted areas could be replaced with spring crops e.g corn.

E.U markets helped by weaker Euro and further Chinese rate cuts have led investors to look to the $ and £.

Iran, a big wheat exporter, announced it will sell 400,000 tonnes as increased domestic buying has swelled stocks.

Oil prices remain under pressure.

author: Joe Beardshaw

October 14th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

November London wheat closed 50p higher yesterday helped by weaker sterling (low inflation figures). Export / fob prices improved with bids parity / small premium to futures, previously exports/fob were a significant discount.

Sentiment appears to have shifted to a general buy commodity attitude. International buyers (Egypt, Algeria, Saudi) have been recently purchasing, looking to stock up as wheat prices are 14% lower than the turn of year. Part of this buying impetus is due to Russian crop concerns for 2016 crop, there has been 40% less rainfall than normal and Russian wheat prices are also higher, partly due to stronger rouble.

Australian wheat crops reduced due to dry conditions and threat of El Nino continues to make headlines.

The U.K has produced two 16 mmt wheat crops, plus carry in that has been estimated at 3.5 mmt available surplus for exports (522,000 2 seasons ago) so exports need to accelerate (especially with biofuel plants closed but expected to start again by 2017 as E.U changes biofuel regime)
Last time there was 3.52 mmt surplus in 2008/9 futures fell to £87.50 but this was in different circumstances

USDA reduced Ukraine corn crop to 25 mmt with 17 mmt exports (-14% year on year), this still fells optimistic with talk of a 20 mmt crop; France has also downgraded corn crop.

US markets are up; corn dragged up by beans and wheat as commercial buying and possible Chinese bean exports fuel the rise.

UK markets are short term supported by limited farmer selling and short covering. If selling accelerates, demand would struggle to absorb it, however conflict between 2015 surplus and 2016 crop concerns will determine whether demand will increase.

author: Joe Beardshaw
September 24th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions

London wheat was an impressive £3.85 up in the November 15 position, having gained 40p on Tuesday, but why?

European markets were provoked by firmer US wheat markets that closed over $5.
Commerzbank said the USDA 2015 – 16 wheat harvest figure of 731 mmt was optimistic and expected wheat to trade $5.20 in next few months.

The rise is largely due to weather with continued dryness in Russia and Ukraine with no rain forecast
However plantings in Russia similar progress as last year at this stage and they have had satisfactory 2015 despite continued growing /crop concerns during growing season

El Niño impact on Australian crops (dryness) continues to make headlines.

Fundamentally there are abundant supplies of wheat, world stocks of 226 mmt are up 7% on last year at record levels.

Markets have always been vulnerable to fund influence and with funds short combined with perceived weather threats could see significant buying.
Wheat has come down a long way and funds look at this with production concerns and feel investment opportunity as the upside is greater than downside.

Russia and Ukraine setting brisk export pace as Russia expects record exports in September; supplies swelled by old crop carryover.

Spanish exports in July up 5% year on year with significantly barley +75%.

Poor factory exports in UK could delay interest rate rise = sterling weaker?

author: Joe Beardshaw
September 17th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions
London Nov 15 wheat gained £1.60 on Monday but has now lost these gains in the last two days, abundant wheat supplies and little buying weighs on the market.
Markets supported by a lack of physical sellers and a £7.75 carry between Nov 15 and May 16, this is making trade sellers nervous; currently Nov 16 is trading at £13.65 above Nov 15.

Russia is on course to export 4.5 mmt of grain this month, a majority of this is wheat, nearly 1 mmt grain were exported in the first 9 days of September. There are also rumours of exports taxes being relaxed.

Following on from reduced French corn, Spain is the latest country to announce 10% reduction in corn production; however this news is having little effect on markets due to the glut of wheat and alternative corn supplies.

El Niño is predicted to peak at the end of year, but so far there is limited impact on grain, Australia is talking of 17 mmt wheat exports, this is close to the average.
Bullish news of freezing temperatures in Brazil and wet conditions in Argentina have posed threat to wheat crops.

Russia has experienced 33% below average rainfall in wheat areas and the two week forecast is dry, this is threatening plant growth / establishment; planting schedule is already behind. Ukraine also experienced drilling problems, only 61% intended osr area drilled and planting window is now closed.

The US federal bank will today announce whether interest rates will rise for first time since Dec 2008, their decision will be largely based on whether they feel the economy is strong enough. Stronger $ would affect $ denominated commodities and could put pressure on developing countries economic growth and financial stability, some Chinese analyst have come out and said that last month’s collapse was due to speculation of US interest rate rises.

U.S markets were confused early yesterday when the Farm Service agency published planting figures, they issued figures for 2014 rather than current 2015 crop areas.

author: Joe Beardshaw
September 14th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

November London wheat was unchanged at the close on Friday but £1 up on the week, corn was up €3.50 on the week. There is plenty of wheat but reduced supplies of corn.

Friday’s USDA report was bullish to corn, domestic stocks were cut 125 m bushels and yield cut 1.3 b/acre, however this is still a hefty 167.5; corn stocks to use 11.6% considered comfortable. Whilst these reductions were expected, they were higher than many forecasts and lifted corn values with spill over support for wheat.

European wheat production increased 6.3 mmt from previous report but corn reduced 4.25 mmt; domestic demand up 1 mmt for wheat.

Despite weaker sterling, the U.K is struggling to compete in export markets; Black sea supplies and even aggressive Danish offers are more competitive. End of September barley exports may exceed wheat exports as small boat demand for barley continues.

Over the next two years, El Nino is predicted to raise global temperatures, as seen in 1998. However Australia, one of the first countries to be effected by El Nino, has seen rain during the winter, despite a forecasted El Nino-driven drought, and the result is a larger barley crop. The north pacific ‘PDO’ is also entering a warm phase combined with increased greenhouse gasses, potential warming effect, but Europe is predicted cooler summers!

China’s stock markets are down due to slowing economic growth.
German finance minister, Wolfgang Schaeuber, warns of a potential financial bubble, caused by QE leading to global problems unless economic reform is incorporated.

author:Joe Beardshaw
September 11th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

Yesterday London wheat closed unchanged, there is speculation of whether the bottom of the market has been seen at £110 November futures (currently £112); a range of influences (currency/ exports, southern hemisphere weather, Russian exports, corn crop etc) make a firm prediction difficult.

HGCA latest estimates have wheat harvest 70% complete but yields have increased to 8.5-8.7 t/h from previous 8.3-8.6 t/h, this would mean 16 mmt crop; Scotland only 10% cut.

French wheat crop estimated as high as 40.7 mmt and exports are struggling but Egypt has raised its moisture spec from 13 to 13.5% until end of May 16, this should help chances of export.

French corn crop is down 25.7% compared to last year but last year was a record crop!

USDA report is due out today; September report has a reputation of being a low key report. It is expected that U.S yield will be cut and a reduction in corn and soya stocks but this was suggested last report. If corn stocks are cut it could see stocks to use ratio at 12% = Bullish

Global food prices have fallen at their fastest rate for 7 years (last month -5.2%) largely due to market glut, embargoes (Russia & china) and demand reduction (economic slowdown).
FAO raised world wheat crop to 728 mmt (+ 5mmt) and stocks a 13 year high at 202 mmt.

Despite rumours of interest rate hike, US wheat and corn firmer as $ weaker, there have been no new highs in last 6 months.
European GDP and falling unemployment could see euro firmer; sterling uncertain.

author Joe Beardshaw

August 20th

**MARKET REPORT**

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

Yesterday London November wheat closed up £0.65, this was in contrast to lower European values. The trend has been declining prices, London wheat down 13% in July, Paris wheat -12% and Paris corn –7%.

Falls in wheat prices prompted by heavy yields and increased carryover. French yields are up 8% on last year and production put at 40+ mmt, hot weather has helped rather than hindered crops. German yields are down by 11% however this has been cancelled out by carryover stocks that are up 30%.

U.K wheat quality should increase domestic consumption and reduce imports but flour millers are noted for their absence from the market.

Russian wheat harvest is 50% complete, yields are down 9.2% (3.23 t/h), this is likely to reduce even further as harvest advances north but grain production still estimated 100+ mmt.

US markets are down, especially soya beans, as rain helps pod fill. Markets are still digesting USDA numbers, for example increased yields in Indiana corn were at 142.94 bushels / acre; USDA 158 b/a. Recent areas of ‘preventative’ plantings (areas not drilled) are higher than expected, this figure will need correcting in future USDA reports.

Oil prices remain depressed but some analysts expect a price bounce to $70 barrel, currently Brent crude c. $47.

The Euro remains €1.40 to the £, Barclays predicting €1.47; U.K interest rate rise is still in debate. Differential between U.K and French wheat increases.

Greek agreements adds some economic stability but concerns remain about Chinese demand which has been the ‘commodity engine’.

Russia destroys food in retaliation against European sanctions and arrests 6 people for smuggling European cheese into Russia.

author: Joe Beardshaw




August 12th

**MARKET REPORT**

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London wheat shed all recent gains closing down £2.60 yesterday; European wheat down €4.50 and European maize down €3.0, the fall was triggered largely by economics and the burden of new crop supplies.

Yield reports have caused a revision to U.K wheat production, +16mmt crop anticipated; previous expectation 15.2-15.4mmt, this is compounded by the big 2014 crop which left a 2.0 mmt carryout after net exports (after imports) totalled 270,000t. At the current price and sterling levels the U.K wheat can compete with French and Danish supplies, but the problem is a lack of buyers.

Global markets were rocked by China again cutting the value of the yuan for second day, this also dragged down other currencies (Australia, Malaysia) and could trigger a currency war. China reduced yuan to try and stimulate exports / economy.

USDA report is due today, markets are uncertain / nervous of content as the report will include field data for first time, recent cool conditions are beneficial to corn development.

French corn production has been put at a 9 year low, added to which some of the corn is being cut for silage due to poor grass growth. Imports could potentially come from Ukraine but they are suffering from heat.

author: Joe Beardshaw





August 07th

**MARKET REPORT**

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

November London wheat closed up yesterday £1 and November '16 was up £1.65 (£10.95 differential Nov 15 against Nov 16).

European maize was + 3 Euros with front month maize a premium to wheat for first time in 2 years.

Latest EU export figures wheat 372,000t (seasonal total 2.0 mmt), barley 384,000t (total 1.8 mmt) but maize imports 632,000 (total 1.4 mmt).

Latest Russian yield figures reduced to 3.16 t/h, down 4.8% against last year but still expectation of hefty wheat crop.

US wheat markets up above $5 level as commercial buying supported wheat markets, soya and corn down. Tension building ahead of next week’s USDA report.

ADAS winter barley yields put at 1.1 – 7.3 t/h, but these big numbers are based on southern yields; later yields are likely to reduce.

Cargill announce for the March – May period, their first loss for 14 years; the loss was attributed to ‘technology’ and losses in Venezuela where the ‘bolivar’ has devalued by 90%.

Super Tuesday proved to be an anti-climax, only one member of the Bank of England committee voted for an interest rate rise, the result, a slightly weaker sterling.

author: Joe Beardshaw




August 06th

**MARKET REPORT**

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London wheat closed unchanged.

Wheat yields are exceeding expectations on the first cuts of UK crop.

French wheat harvest forecasts have been put as high as 39.4 mmt smashing the previous record harvest of 38.2 mmt in 1998; increase attributed to increased area and big yields.

Despite increased cheaper offers from France, Egypt again bought Russian wheat. Black sea supplies dominate export markets but due to volumes of sales there could be logistical problems of physically loading and shipping.

Wheat crop is here but concern is appearing over maize crop, European maize was up 3+ euros. French maize has been described as the worst since 2003 with crops half height and heat causing pollination problems; June survey has 85% French maize good to excellent, recent survey 59%. French yields could be down 24% and EU crop down 19% compared to record 2014 crop; biggest reduction since 2001.

Adding to sentiment, swarms of locusts are eating southern Russian corn crop. Global stocks offer some consolation but south American corn could increase volumes into Europe.

US markets are firmer on demand for soya and wheat, record exports of ddg’s to China indicate continued demand for protein which should support corn markets. Markets likely to be quiet before next week’s USDA report the first analysis of production / supply.

Differential between November 2015 and November 2016 reaches £10, this is provoking talk of increased carry out before harvest even gets into full swing!

Today is Super Thursday, Bank of England will publish interest rate discussion minutes and latest inflation figures, sterling remains above 1.43.

author: Joe Beardshaw




December 31st

**MARKET REPORT**

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

WHEAT
Wheat values have continued to decline as there is little bullish news to support values.

New crop wheat has fallen c. £7 in the last 10 days as indicated by nov 13 futures. The fall in old crop has been even more dramatic with little buying interest.

The bearish sentiment has been fuelled beneficial weather to crop potential.
The U.S corn crop is now 95% planted and the moisture that was previously a problem could now be a benefit.

World grain stocks are predicted to increase significantly as a result of the 2013 world corn crop.

USDA report issued tonight could give market direction.
The cereals event taking place in U.K today and tomorrow often has an impact on market trends. A concentration of growers and trade looking at market fundamentals could lead to increased selling.

The Ukraine harvest is due to start in the next few days and if yields are favourable offers of relatively cheap grain may increase.

With current values still £15 more than this time last year and production looking favourable you would feel there is more downside than upside in current circumstances.

The French market keeps testing the psychological 200 euros (matif nov) and if this gets broken further falls are likely.


BARLEY
Feed barley has followed feed wheat down and remains at a hefty discount. Despite the fall in prices U.K barley is finding little buying interest.

To get some demand going some ‘big boat’ business needs to happen.

Malting barley prices have fallen but not to the same extent as feed grains, this has meant premiums have actually increased. With tight European stocks markets are supported until tonnage is actually in the barn. Despite relatively good prices growers are reluctant sellers.

East Anglia is the centre of good demand for spring barley and if the market is starved of sellers a ‘short’ market may develop.

Winter malting barley trade is neglected with minimal buyers, quality will be the important.


OSR
Market still being led by prospects of a big soybean crop in US and Brazil increasing global 13/14 production 18%. US stock must be running very tight now as the year’s export figures have already

passed USDA’s estimate, which is evidently reflected in old crop soybean futures price. Fairer weather in the US has allowed for soybean planting to catch up, although 71% planted vs 5yr avg 84%. Commentators/analysts are forecasting that due to delays in corn plantings (95% complete) as much as 3M acres will be switched to soybeans – question is will the weather allow for US growers to complete planting campaign. Today’s US weather reports show a severe weather warning over the Midwest (hail, tornados and thunderstorms) which is likely to have an impact. The market will surely remain volatile until there is more surety over planting figures.

Rapeseed estimates are for EU production figure to increase to 19.72MMT up from 19.31MMT last year as large German crops and eastern EU will offset poorer crops in France and UK. Large crops expected from Poland, Czech Republic, Denmark, Romania, Hungary and Slovakia.

The current OSR picture feels bearish; although tonight’s USDA report will be crucial to the trend of the market as any surprises to the stock figures will undoubtedly get an aggressive reaction.


STORAGE
We are currently allocating harvest storage space to a range of stores. If you would like to reserve space (on a priced or price to be agreed basis) please contact the office. We can guarantee efficient harvest movement and are able to handle seasonal quality variables.


author: Andrew Dewing