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London wheat closed down 45p Friday but gained £1.30 for the week.
French farm ministry put French average wheat yields at 5.57 t/ha meaning a 29.1 million tonne crop; worst since 1980.
French wheat harvest 62% complete, however corn crop rated 71% good to very good versus 58% this time last year.
60% UK barley cut, yields estimated 5.9 t/h – 6.3 t/h against recent average of 6.8 t/h. Oilseed average yield 3.1 – 3.3 t/h (recent 3.6 t/h). Wheat area 1.794 million hectares x 7.5 t/h (estimated) = 13.455 million tonnes (last year 16.44 mmt).
Russian harvest progressing, bumper crop of 70.1 m/t anticipated; Western region quality down to rain increasing feed grade rather than milling.
US markets firmer, despite good growing conditions. Soya up on export sales; China may increase soyameal imports and reduce DDG’s (produced from corn). Problems with western Europe raise hopes of wheat exports to north Africa. Non-commercial remain long in soya. Latest favourable US employment numbers increase possibility of interest rate rise = stronger $= bearish agricultural commodities.
Brent crude trading c. $45 barrel author: Joe Beardshaw