February 03rd

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

UK May wheat ended the week down £4.25 (£151.75) and Nov wheat down £5.20 £159.80, present UK markets have opened lower.
Downward pressure on domestic wheat due external markets, fundamentally UK has new crop support with a much reduced wheat crop but alternatives can feature e.g. imported corn.
Sterling having biggest weekly gain since mid-December as UK departs EU and interest rates kept on hold, however Sterling has started to weaken on the back of initial trade talks.

US markets are generally down, especially wheat, trends / technical analysis turning bearish and wheat was ‘overbought’. Corn is supported, US corn is the cheapest available origin before South American crops become available; exports picked up overall lagging 33% year on year.

There is still a big global wheat crop and US wheat will struggle to compete unless fundamentals change; weather?

Soya has fallen 89 cents since Jan 2 high, demand has been curtailed by coronavirus and swine fever.

Coronavirus impacting on markets, Shanghai stock market falling 9% before recovering. Virus has upset expected Chinese soya purchases following signing of phase 1 trade agreement.

Russian wheat crop forecast to be close to record, area has increased and if yields match 5 year average possible wheat crop of 79.5 mmt; present Russian wheat crop potential ‘good’ but spring will be critical period.
Government aided plan had seen 932,000 hectares abandoned but land has been brought back into grain production (2017)

Oil down as US stocks higher than anticipated

author: Joe Beardshaw