August 06th


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London wheat closed unchanged.

Wheat yields are exceeding expectations on the first cuts of UK crop.

French wheat harvest forecasts have been put as high as 39.4 mmt smashing the previous record harvest of 38.2 mmt in 1998; increase attributed to increased area and big yields.

Despite increased cheaper offers from France, Egypt again bought Russian wheat. Black sea supplies dominate export markets but due to volumes of sales there could be logistical problems of physically loading and shipping.

Wheat crop is here but concern is appearing over maize crop, European maize was up 3+ euros. French maize has been described as the worst since 2003 with crops half height and heat causing pollination problems; June survey has 85% French maize good to excellent, recent survey 59%. French yields could be down 24% and EU crop down 19% compared to record 2014 crop; biggest reduction since 2001.

Adding to sentiment, swarms of locusts are eating southern Russian corn crop. Global stocks offer some consolation but south American corn could increase volumes into Europe.

US markets are firmer on demand for soya and wheat, record exports of ddg’s to China indicate continued demand for protein which should support corn markets. Markets likely to be quiet before next week’s USDA report the first analysis of production / supply.

Differential between November 2015 and November 2016 reaches £10, this is provoking talk of increased carry out before harvest even gets into full swing!

Today is Super Thursday, Bank of England will publish interest rate discussion minutes and latest inflation figures, sterling remains above 1.43.

author: Joe Beardshaw