September 14th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

November London wheat was unchanged at the close on Friday but £1 up on the week, corn was up €3.50 on the week. There is plenty of wheat but reduced supplies of corn.

Friday’s USDA report was bullish to corn, domestic stocks were cut 125 m bushels and yield cut 1.3 b/acre, however this is still a hefty 167.5; corn stocks to use 11.6% considered comfortable. Whilst these reductions were expected, they were higher than many forecasts and lifted corn values with spill over support for wheat.

European wheat production increased 6.3 mmt from previous report but corn reduced 4.25 mmt; domestic demand up 1 mmt for wheat.

Despite weaker sterling, the U.K is struggling to compete in export markets; Black sea supplies and even aggressive Danish offers are more competitive. End of September barley exports may exceed wheat exports as small boat demand for barley continues.

Over the next two years, El Nino is predicted to raise global temperatures, as seen in 1998. However Australia, one of the first countries to be effected by El Nino, has seen rain during the winter, despite a forecasted El Nino-driven drought, and the result is a larger barley crop. The north pacific ‘PDO’ is also entering a warm phase combined with increased greenhouse gasses, potential warming effect, but Europe is predicted cooler summers!

China’s stock markets are down due to slowing economic growth.
German finance minister, Wolfgang Schaeuber, warns of a potential financial bubble, caused by QE leading to global problems unless economic reform is incorporated.

author:Joe Beardshaw