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London wheat closed down 85p on Friday, bringing the weeks fall to £1.90; the fall has largely been attributed to sterling gains, currently £ / euro 1.1382.
Previous Euro strength has been hindering EU exports, exports from EU 45% below last season. Big Russian crop dominated markets, Russian grain is being exported to Indonesia, Vietnam and they almost have a monopoly on Egyptian business. Egypt states they have 3.4 million tonnes wheat stocks enough for 4.5 months’ supply.
Australian wheat crop expected to be cut further due to weather issues.
US markets are quiet but soya remains supported by Chinese demand and wet conditions in Argentina, dry conditions Brazil.
Mixed quality for US wheat; 2017 average protein 13.2, previous record came in 2003 at 12.7, 11.8 is the 5 year average and last year it was 12.4. Average kg/hl is 76.8 and hagberg 259 (5 year average 301). It is estimated that only 31% group 1 wheat suitable for breadmaking but 40% of wheat crop was group 1 & 2. Whilst premiums have improved, will there could be a swing this autumn away from growing quality wheats with additional costs?
Oil continues to firm whilst gold declines.author: Joe Beardshaw