February 20th

Market report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London wheat closed up 80p yesterday. Despite many markets closed yesterday e.g. US, China, trade responded to some bullish weather.

Dry weather in Argentina continues to threaten, soya crop reduced from 60 mm tonnes at beginning of season to current estimates of 50 mmt; limited rains are forecast. Very firm soya meal prices increase crush margins.

US South west plains continue to be dry lending market support.

Russian wheat prices were up $2 yesterday, demand from Iran etc underpins values, coupled with weather markets. French wheat crop rating decline. Russia are forecasting to harvest 80-83 mmt wheat.

Rapeseed broke technical barriers yesterday for first time in 3 months, as a result of Argentine soya conditions.

Sterling being tugged by conflicting influences, 78% of poll expecting interest rate rise in May, this supports sterling against continued Brexit concerns. UK waiting employment numbers on Wednesday and domestic production on Thursday.

J.P. Morgan predict further gains in agricultural markets in 2018 as weather injects risk premium; agricultural commodities best performer so far 2018 up c. 5%.

European crops not winter hardened due to mild conditions and very cold weather forecast next week but snow cover will offer protection.

author: Joe Beardshaw