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London wheat lost momentum on Friday, closing down 85p May 18 and down £1.55 November 18; at one point November 18 was trading £2.05 above the close. However, the week’s gains were up £2.50 old crop and £1.05 new crop; the May - November spread has reduced to c. £3.80 reducing incentive to hold grain.
US markets also closed weaker on Friday but showed weekly gains. Continued drought in Argentina and dry weather in plains underpins soya and wheat markets respectively, long range forecast not showing any major changes.
Washington announcement on steel and aluminium tariffs (25% /15%) has raised fears of retaliatory action on US agricultural exports and could see for instance, China switching to Brazilian origin soya.
China forecasts growth for 2018 at 6.5% from 6.9% in 2017.
Sterling found little support in May’s speech ref Brexit, although euro may be influenced by the outcome of the Italian election.
UK wheat remains a domestic dominated affair, whilst barley has good demand to ports. author: Joe Beardshaw