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London wheat was down 50p on Friday to total a weekly decline of 20p. Sterling is near an 8 year high against euro, this is making exports difficult, especially with aggressive sellers elsewhere. Strong sterling not only hits exports, it increases imports, especially ‘quality’ wheats. European corn markets were up 1 euro on the week.
AHDB forecast for 2016 U.K crop area has wheat unchanged; winter barley down 4% and spring barley up 10%. Any reduction in yield will be compensated by weighty carry outs after two consecutive 16+ million tonne crops.
IGC has 2015 world wheat crop at 726 mmt but reduced carryout by 1 mmt to 208 mmt, however this is still up on last season’s 201 mmt.
EU granted export licenses for 636,000 tonnes of wheat last week, up 58% from previous week and largest weekly total of the season. Export pace is behind required rate to shift surplus and significantly less than this time last year.
Ukraine likely to limit exports to 16.6 mmt wheat this season (so far they have shipped 8.4 mmt).
Macri wins Argentinean election with pre-election promise to lift export restrictions.
Allegedly 60,000t barley boat loading in U.K in the next few weeks, but the expected surge in export demand for barley is hampered by currency and China reducing import requirement. Variable quality of Australian malting barley may increase feed supplies but reduce malting.
Based on the fundamentals of supply and demand, the current sentiment on wheat markets is bearish. For there to be a change in sentiment, some crop threat needs to emerge to add ‘momentum’, a Bloomberg survey of traders had 5 bulls, 9 bears, 9 neutral.author: Joe Beardshaw