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London wheat closed down on Friday, bringing total weekly losses - £2.60 May 18 and - £2.10 November 18. Sterling remains stable against euro as perceived progress in Brexit negotiations
US had a choppy trading day on Friday. Chinese tariffs on imported US pork had collateral impact on other commodities; Chinese pork production increased with domestic prices down so situation suits pork tariff. Soya meal closed up due to Argentinean situation, soya production put at 39.5 mmt, 31% down on Jan estimate; crops 18% maturity and 80% rated poor to very poor. Despite rain in Kansas, winter wheat was up; crop ratings due today.
Feed barley now trading above feed wheat in export markets, new crop demand looks underpinned - China etc. Spain, a traditional feed barley importer has had some rain that will help domestic crops; UK spring barley now getting drilled and some will be feed. Wheat prices down; old crop demand down, ruminant feed season declines. Winter crops have not come out of UK winter in good condition.
International Grain Council has rapeseed / canola crops at highest potential production for a decade. 2018-19 has an estimated increase of 900,000 tonnes at 75.6 mmt although consumption estimated 75.8 mmt up 1.7 mmt. Difficult to be accurate on figures as increased production dependant on increased area in Canada and stocks influenced by Chinese tonnage held. EU rapeseed up 2.1% to 22.3 mmt.
Oil up 2% with Brent crude + $70 barrel.
Trump has appointed his new National security advisor, middle east hawk, John Bolton.
author: Joe Beardshaw