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London November wheat closed unchanged yesterday having gained 25p on Friday, up 30p last week.
New crop values have shown resilience, currently world fundamentals / supply are not having any major production threats. Old crop futures is technical, physical and futures becoming disconnected; domestic prices supported by continued demand to the north, although there are increasing volumes of imported wheat coming into Hull. Milling premiums have increased as supplies of quality wheat have tightened
Sterling stable, despite expectation of 2 interest rate rises this year, first anticipated in May.
US markets have fallen, better weather helping corn and spring wheat planting, calming the previous bullish sentiment; $ stronger not helping commodities.
UK spring barley planting progressing, although heavy land still struggling but this is not traditional malting barley land. Scotland has made good progress, but planting has been delayed and likely to impact yield and quality, much will now depend on seasonal weather.
Spring planting from France to Black sea has been slow affecting barley and sugar beet and some area may not get planted and yield certainly reduced.
Feed barley remains buoyant, rumours suggest Saudi maybe in to buy this week. There has been good demand for German new crop feed barley; Ukraine production estimated down 8.5%, spring area replaced by sunflowers due to weather. Australian and Canadian barley production is down, making for tighter balance sheet, especially if China wants increased tonnages to replace US sorghum if tariffs are imposed. author: Joe Beardshaw