May 11th

Market report

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London November 18 wheat closed up 50p, whilst Matif wheat was lower, this was largely due to currency; sterling fell as Bank of England announced no interest rate rise (vote 7 – 2), which was anticipated. Slower economic growth had BOE saying ‘only limited tightening needed’, next rate hike forecast February 2019.

US markets digested USDA report and initial reaction was soya gaining sharply before falling back, the report did not have many surprises regarding production but the bulls seized on reduced stocks 2018-19

Excluding external factors such as economics and currency etc, the attention focussed on weather and where there are areas of uncertainty:
Argentina drought well documented with economic problems
Brazil becoming increasingly dry
Australia dry with may forecast not predicting rain
Europe especially eastern Europe turning drier
US mixed with dry and excessive moisture in various area…

But USDA suggests that globally a big wheat harvest is still anticipated for 2018-19!

author: Joe Beardshaw