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London wheat closed down 15p on Friday, but gained £2.90 over the week. November 19 wheat lost 40p over the week and the differential between November 18 and November 19 is currently £22.15
USDA report had a bearish impact on US markets, record corn and soya yields predicted but not in the barn yet and trade will be influenced by ‘unpredictable’ tariff situation.
US markets appear insulated from world situation, comforted by their own crops that have benefited from good weather; many traders are sceptical of USDA statistics as Australian and Canadian wheat forecast unchanged, even when reports suggest weather issues etc.
Fundamentals remain bullish, problems in Europe, Russia and Australia; Ukraine allegedly going to restrict wheat exports to 16 mmt this season.
USDA did cut EU wheat crop to 137.5 from 145 (july estimate)
French corn put at 62% good to excellent, lowest since 2015; wet weather delayed planting and heat not helpful.
China says they will have better domestic corn crop, they expect to reduce imports and will target South American soya; Argentina and Brazil hopeful for good crop size.
Euro falls as Trump targets Turkey, Turkish lira at record lows; markets nervous of EU bank’s exposure to Turkey.
European markets have seen big price gains; a bull market needs to be fed and how much more bullish news can appear, that is not already factored in?author: Joe Beardshaw