January 22nd

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London wheat closed up 85p. Sterling maintained levels as Brexit situation / outcome continues to be interpreted in varied ways. UK wheat should be competitive in small boat trade, subject currency, but there are a lack of buyers. Feed barley trade almost totally neglected as corn remains cheap.

US markets closed yesterday for Luther King day. Reports of seven vessels carrying 455,000 tonnes of US soya loaded and heading to China, but government shutdown makes it difficult to confirm.

Russian wheat prices reach 4 year high as stocks reduce. Up to 10th Jan, Russia had exported 24.7 mmt wheat, two thirds of the anticipated total for season. Russia could lower rail tariffs to protect domestic supply, helping grain movement.

EU wheat exports are down 27% year on year, 8.96 mmt v’s 12.2 mmt this time last year with France shipping 4.47 mmt; barley only down 0.6% year on year. Wheat imports into EU up 45%, Russia is the biggest supplier at 2.89 mmt. Cheap corn from far Eastern Europe/ ex Soviet block has seen imports increase 48%.

IMF forecasts drop in world growth to 3.5% in 2019 (October forecast was 3.7%), reduction due to trade disputes and Brexit cited but IMF is an European funded organisation.

Egypt indicates it will make immediate payment for wheat imports rather than previous 180 days, this should reduce import prices.

author: Joe Beardshaw