January 24th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London old crop closed down 65p and new crop down 95p, making November discount to May £17.80.
Sterling gains strength, now just below 1.15 against euro. Option of Brexit delay gains greater weight; economists predict no deal is more damaging to the economy than ‘May’s’ proposal.

Since consolidation of UK merchant trade (Frontier & Fengrain, ADM & Gleadell) it is estimated 64% UK grain will be in the hands of 3 merchants.

US markets mixed; corn had up / down day but remains above trend line, beans recovered from Tuesdays losses as rumours of trade talk cancellation with China unfounded and Brazil is hot and dry again. Wheat gained as HRW wheat now cheaper than Russian origin but, heavy stocks and resistance levels could see only 20 cents per bushel on upside. Speculation over acres planted wheat down?, soya up?, corn uncertain?

French wheat is presently cheaper than Russian, subject to freight, competition also coming from Argentina into North African markets.

Oil is down but is in the balance as OPEC cuts production and US shale boom losing momentum countered by reduced world growth. 2019 has so far seen oil prices up with Brent gaining 15% this year but 30% below the 4 year peak reached in October.

author: Joe Beardshaw