March 08th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London wheat again closed down as bearish factors / sentiment weighs on markets. May 19 London closed down £2.20 (£159.50) and November 19 closed down £0.90 (£145.50)

Sterling gained, despite Brexit, as ECB announced no interest rate rises until next year, slow growth predicted in 19 countries in Eurozone. EU economy struggling and central bank also offered cheap loans to try and stimulate economy.
Brexit struggles on with EU officials pessimistic the deal will be backed by parliament but, with deadline approaching, it is high stakes poker.

US markets were down, there was a significant selloff in corn and wheat markets. USDA report due today anticipated bearish supply / demand and disappointing export figures are expected with Brazil / Argentina production up.

Latest estimates for 2019 global wheat crop put at 757 mmt at present there are few crop concerns, Russian wheat crop put at 75 mmt possibly 80 mmt, if conditions permit. But there is still a lot of weather to come and very rare there are no threats before harvest.

With all current estimates / forecasts in place, what else can emerge to fuel bearish argument?

Chinese exports down 20% in February compared last year (predicted 4.8% decline), growth slows as tariffs exert influence, and Asian stocks down as result. Decline partly explained by Chinese lunar new year holiday but still lower than expected

Rumours of UK millers trying to buy German milling wheat before March 30 deadline. Tariff threats have paralysed UK trade ,although we struggle to compete on price. Will tariffs be imposed with UK net importer?

author: Joe Beardshaw