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London wheat was down £1.05 May 19 (£163.50) for the week and November down 75p (£147.50).
Sterling still worth c. 86p against euro as Brexit farce continues, although currency traders think Prime Minister May is positive for sterling, ‘best of a bad bunch’, and any threats of resignation weakens sterling.
UK wheat trade remains insular, old crop expensive compared to French and new crop can be bought cheaper from Baltic, Danish, Black sea, tariffs excluded. Maize remains cheap, maintaining pressure on wheat.
US markets closed down, pressure exerted by corn. USDA report had corn stocks lower but not as much as anticipated, however potential area increased. Report was neutral soya and slightly bearish wheat. Corn may find support, significant amount of acres are yet to planted due to wet conditions. Funds are short and could lead to covering position but fundamentals are bearish.
Chinese trade talks need to make real progress to help markets / exports but, swine fever in China is reducing demand.
Reports predict Russia could have record grain crop, increased area and good conditions but dry spring is a real yield threat, however good snow cover will supply moisture when it melts. Russia continues to be a dominant force in global wheat export market.
Ukraine has some dry concerns, some areas only having 60% expected rainfall in March but, as with Russia, melting snow will help moisture deficit.
French soft wheat rating down to 78% good to excellent and winter barley 75% good to excellent.
author: Joe Beardshaw