June 11th

Market report

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November London wheat closed down £1.95 yesterday (£151.15).
Sterling weaker (currently euro 89p) due poor economic figures (GDP and factory production) and continued political manoeuvring; if politicians cannot agree on leader, how can they agree on Brexit?
Rain raising UK crop prospects for wheat, 15 mmt?
US markets have been giving UK market direction but when they harvest and the US production is known, our harvest will be complete!

US markets finished on a strong note, small gains as funds reduced positions pre USDA report and trade tension with Mexico has receded.
USDA report due today combined with planting progress report. June report tends have little market impact but due to delayed planting it might be a different story; corn and soya production will be a guestimate due to uncertain acres, pre report talk is of very significant corn production reduction but less so for later drilled soya.
Cooler weather now slowing crop development, July corn at $4.12, resting on 2018 high.

Ukraine wheat harvest starts in c. 2 weeks, wheat yields forecast 4.15 – 4.2 t/h (last year 3.7 t/h).
Talk of heat in Russia lowering production but wheat crop of 80 mmt is still substantial and above last year when they dominated wheat export markets.

author: Joe Beardshaw