August 06th

Market report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

November London wheat closed down £1.15 at £144.80
UK not really featuring in export markets and with big predicted wheat crop where will it go?
Barley has active export programme with reasonable demand also helped by lower maize prices
Sterling remains weak as Brexit deal progress appears unlikely and economic data negative as consumer spending hits record low

US markets opened lower before recovering
Corn bounced off resistance levels of $4.06; corn not so dependent on Chinese trade
Trade war intensifies with China instructing state buyers to stop buying US commodities
Danger trade war becomes a currency war with Chinese yuan reaching lowest level against $ since 2008 (c. 7 yuan / $) leading to Trump accusing China of currency manipulation to make their goods cheaper in export markets
Trade war and currency knocks stock markets
Markets uncertain of next week’s USDA report with wide range of predictions; corn area forecast as low as 83.5 million acres lowest since 2006 (previous USDA report 91.7 )
With funds long corn any bearish news could lead to volume selling
Weather appears to be ignored

Russian wheat crop reduced by state consultancy agency to 75.5 mmt from previous 76.4 mmt
Rain in some areas delaying wheat harvest but benefiting spring crops –maize and sunflowers

French oilseed crop estimated 3.6 – 3.8 mmt which would be 26-32% below 5 year average

Frost in Argentina possible threat to wheat crops

UK spring barley producing big yields and good quality but weather forecast could pose problems with rain threat of pre germ etc

author: Joe Beardshaw