May 11th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London wheat market was closed on Friday but gains for the week; May 20 +£2.45 (closed at £153.45), however this contract is soon to expire and values are becoming more technical, November 20 closed + £3.40 (£163.70) and November 21 + £3.70 (£151.45).
Weather continues to dominate sentiment, trade is searching out any new updates on regions with rain or lack of! Reduced rain forecast for S Russia, Ukraine and the Balkans. Strong winds will also be contributing to dryer soil moisture levels.

Sterling was very slightly firmer, Bank of England resisted further stimulus measures warning biggest economic slump expected for 300 years. Economy in April – June to shrink 25% and unemployment reach 9% but economy forecast to bounce 15% in 2021.

US markets modestly higher but it was a quiet trading week.
Support from freezing temperatures in the mid-west and further trade talks with China viewed as positive.
Dow was up despite unemployment numbers, which were not a bad as anticipated.
USDA crop report Tuesday, this will also cover stocks.
There are big ranges for corn carry out tonnage and planting acres estimates, clarity on these could give market direction but it is predicted bearish.

Ukraine has completed 86% of spring planting intentions. It has been estimated that the spring drought has caused 2.6% crop losses, especially for OSR and wheat.
2019-20 saw exports of all grains up 19% from previous year (51.47 mmt), this figure is projected lower for 2020-21

Saudi Arabia triples vat from 5% to 15% to counter lost oil revenue.

author: Joe Beardshaw