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London May wheat contract will expire this week, volume has been non-existent and values have been inferred but closed unchanged at £154.50. November 20 wheat closed up on Friday £1.30 (£165.10) and up on the week £1.40 however and November 21 closed the week up on the day but down 30p on the week (£151.15).
Sterling lower for 5th consecutive day, currently Euro almost worth 90p; sterling damaged by little progress with Brexit negotiations and economic data.
European wheat supported by forecast of dry weather and little rain
US markets slightly higher but fundamentals remain bearish. USDA WASDE was bearish; weather forecasts remain generally favorable for the U.S., crop progress and conditions report today.
Oil up due to increased industrial activity in China during raising hopes for corn / ethanol demand.
French crops again downgraded, wheat 55% good to excellent (last week 57%, last year 79%), winter barley down to 51% from 53% and spring barley down to 62% from 64%.
Maize crop 90% planted.
German wheat production forecast down 2.9%
Ukraine have reduced export estimates for the coming season due to dry weather and lower planted area; barley exports possibly down 23.4%, wheat – 17.5%, corn – 1.8%
India having bumper crops, wheat production estimated at 107.18 mmt and rice 117.94 mmt these are close to record figure; India is the World number 2 rice exporter.
Economic impact very serious, Japan and Germany being classified as in recession after two quarters of negative growth. US economy shrank 4.8% in the first 3 months of 2020, the biggest contraction since the ‘Great Depression’, China was down 6.8%. Some analysts are pessimistically forecasting 30% contraction in US in the coming months.author: Joe Beardshaw