May 26th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

The May 20 contract expired on Thursday. November 20 closed down 80p Friday (£169.75) and November 21 + 70p (£152.70), gains for the week were significant on November 20, up £4.55 and November 21 + £1.55. November 20 did reach £171 Thursday.

Sterling unchanged but may come under pressure as UK economy forecast to shrink 17.5% this quarter, previous prediction 13.1%, but next quarter growth / bounce of + 11.9% predicted due to relaxation of lockdown restrictions.
Bank of England will have to give financial impetus, such as quantitative easing, but markets do not anticipate negative interest rates.

Wheat markets were down as rain expected Germany, Poland and southern Russia but overall yield estimates are down due to the irreversible damage caused by the dry conditions.

French crops improve: wheat 57% good to excellent from 55% last week, winter barley 52% from 51% last week; spring barley 58% from 62% last week; maize 93% planted with 86% good to excellent from 87% last week

Ukraine are close to their exportable wheat quota for the season, leaving 200k mt to be exported between now and 30th June. Ukraine government have warned traders that if exports are exceeded there will be a ban, this may not have a fundamental significance on stocks but the notion of a ban would cause concern in the markets.

US markets are mixed, corn up but soya and wheat down. Good planting progress and corn emergence ahead of 5 year average, few crop concerns as beneficial weather is forecast; USDA crop report due Tuesday

Egypt has 2.86 mmt wheat, bought against 3.6 mmt demand with reserves for 5 months

author: Joe Beardshaw