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London wheat closed up on Friday after 5 consecutive negative closes over the week; November 20 + £1 (£168) and November 21 +10p (£152.25) both positions down £2 for the week. Most of Friday’s trading went through marginally higher than open value (£167 – 167.50) and only trading higher on the close, prices were largely helped by weaker sterling and firmer external markets.
Paris wheat also up after reaching 1 month lows but, market found technical support and crop potential is a matter of conjecture.
Last week, USDA report estimated UK wheat crop at 10mmt, down 38% against last year’s 16.2 mmt. Global wheat carry out stocks are at new record levels, however most of the increase comes from China and India and this stock rarely moves abroad into the international open market.
French wheat ratings are the same as last week: 56% good to excellent, winter barley unchanged also 52%, spring barley 54% from 55% and corn 83% down 85%. Last year, wheat was 80% and current ratings are at lowest level since 2011.
Russia raises its wheat forecast and Ukraine raises corn crop. Russia continue to push exports even when wheat stocks are at a 7 year low…cash…oil?
US slightly up but trading is quiet. Funds are heavily short on corn, crop conditions are benign, current weather continues to be favourable, will they maintain a short position when July corn up 20 cents from low?
Dow recovered from Thursday’s beating.author: Joe Beardshaw