July 14th

Market Report

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London wheat closed down yesterday, November 20 - £1.60 (£166.90) and November 21 - £1.35 (£152.90), over the week, down by c.£1 on Nov 20 and Nov21.
Sterling was weaker but external markets exerted pressure; sentiment not helped by a prediction that a second wave of Covid 19 virus maybe worse.

French wheat, having reached 7 week high, also fell due to stronger Euro and profit taking; crop reports are of big variation in yields. Germany having rain but crops not suffering yet.

Early UK barley yields are down c. 15 – 25% and quality very variable reports of a single field of craft producing nitrogen results of between 1.64 – 2.01. Very early days but nitrogen higher than last couple years, however grain size is encouraging.

US markets are all down as better weather for corn pollination and soya crops dragged down wheat.
Monday’s USDA crop report didn’t show a great deal of change from last week, only a marginal drop in good conditions for corn, soy and wheat.

IKAR Russian consultancy firm reduced wheat crop to 76.5 mmt from 78 mmt; yet Russian prices still fell.

Ukraine has harvested 6.34 mmt grain from 1.9 million hectares including 2.92 mmt wheat and 3.03 mmt barley
Total grain estimated 68 mmt compared 75.1 last season.

Friday’s USDA report saw a 2020/21 world wheat production number of 769.31Mt, almost 4Mt less than the June WASDE with reductions coming from the EU, Russia and the US. This 20/21 production number less China and India gives a number of 526.13Mt which is 5Mt less than 19/20 rather than 2Mt above.

Egypt world’s biggest wheat buyer announces it has enough wheat for 5 – 6 months consumption having included 3.5 mmt domestic supply

author: Joe Beardshaw