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London wheat closed down on Friday, November 20 – 90p (£162.65) and November 21 – 50p (£149.25); for the week November 20 - £3.25 and November 21 - £2.60. Nov 20 opened this morning slightly higher, only to then fall away by £1.25, market has marginally recovered but still 90p down from the open.
Sterling value has gained nearly 0.5% against Euro.
Debate continues about UK wheat crop, highly variable yields but 10 – 10.5 mmt seems the average.
Whilst still plenty of samples to come in, spring barley looks to be struggling on quality and yield, apart from in the south, however small premiums make long haulage not viable.
French wheat harvest 99% complete, spring barley 83% complete. Even though information is suggesting small French, UK, Romanian and Bulgarian crops, markets still have fallen as other producers anticipate good crops. Canada predicting record wheat crop and Russia increase production, Australia also having a potentially large crop.
Germany is 80% harvested, having seen good yields that are compensating smaller area and could be only .5 – 1 million t below last year.
Maize beginning to feature, French crop ratings are down 3% on week (77% to 74% good / excellent)
US markets are down as good weather and expected high corn yields are forecasted from record area; stronger $ due to better employment data and increased tension with China have all exerted downward pressure.
USDA report this week is anticipated to be bearish; USDA report is not done by field walking but grower surveys, satellite pictures etc, so results can be unpredictable.author: Joe Beardshaw