Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.
The Chinese new year is on February 8th and it will herald the year of the monkey but 2016 markets started more like the year of the bear with London wheat down £2.0+ yesterday.
Falls in the Chinese stock market spread to financial markets which in turn affected agricultural commodities, US corn and wheat reaching with new contract lows.
With markets at low levels the ongoing weather concerns affecting sentiment should have given some stability but this was trumped by economic turmoil.
There are reports that 25% of Ukraine’s wheat crop has been affected by 3 days of cold temperatures and insufficient snow cover, however warmer temperatures are forecast.
El Niño may change to la Nina which potentially could have increased weather disruption to world crops
Oil prices picked up slightly on increased middle east tension, although an analyst recently predicted oil trading at $20 barrel in 2016.
A glimmer of bullish news is that eastern Europe is experiencing cold conditions and extreme wet conditions in western Europe is not helping crops with growers unable to get on fields to combat disease and pest threats
Plentiful stocks overhang the market, Korea bought south American origin wheat and corn (Egypt bought Argentinean wheat) showing there are aggressive sellers about.
Sterling forecast to weaken whilst European referendum features; interest rate rise maybe postponed. Even if sterling weakens Russian and Ukrainian currency is considerably worse and is helping their exports.
author: Joe Beardshaw