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London wheat will have a shorter trading week due to the Bank Holiday but catching up on last week, London wheat closed up on Friday, November 20 + 25p (£169) and November 21 + 70p (£152.45) making gains for week £2.75 and 85p respectively.
French markets closed down yesterday but in general have been supported by Chinese buying, shipments estimated to be by the end September 1 million tonnes. It is thought that after September China may switch to US and Canada; Baltic, Poland and Black Sea still the cheapest origin
Markets conflict, bearish and bullish:
Bearish - big crops in Russia, Australia and Canada (Canadian wheat + 10.5% (35.7 mmt) and IGC increasing world wheat production and stocks in 2020 compared 2019
Bullish - smaller EU crop, Chinese demand and lack of sellers as many domestic markets are competing with export values.
It is predicted up to 300,000 tonnes of German quality wheat will be imported into the UK (German wheat crop down 5.1% at 21.88 mmt) as millers are concerned about UK supply and quality. In 2019 1.05 mmt of wheat was imported, Canada supplying nearly half of this total.
US markets supported by dry weather and continued Chinese buying.
Soya price has moved from the low levels seen in August to now at 2 year high in cash markets, funds are long soya
Whilst world wheat fundamentals are bearish, markets remain robust, funds are short, there could be short covering in wheat markets unless sentiment changes.author: Joe Beardshaw