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With the UK heading into lockdown, will we see a similar week to what we experienced back in March? Will we see another £14 p/t sell off? Crude oil is plunging as lockdown measures weigh again on oil consumption levels. France, Germany, UK all now fully locked-down. The fate of the US will be determined by the election result - Biden for a Lockdown and Trump against. We should know the Election result by Wednesday morning. The polls are showing Biden in the lead - this will add uncertainty into the markets. How accurate are the polls and will Donald pack his bags on Wednesday if asked to do so?!
According to FranceAgrimer, 66% of winter wheat sowings in France had been carried out by 26 October against 45% the previous week, in corn, 88% of the area has been harvested, compared to 77% the previous week and 60% to date last year. Rains in the US is adding to the pressure on wheat markets, whilst only 41% of the crop is considered good to excellent. On Friday, funds were net buyers in 3 500 lots of corn and 3 000 lots of soybean. They were net sellers in 4 000 lots of wheat.
Our view - we expect markets to remain nervous over the expectation of the US presidential election.
author: Josh Dewing