Will we see £200 ex farm for new crop in the next 2 weeks? This cold and dry weather around the world is going to help, but when will the UK farmer become a seller?
Prices of all-commodities continue to progress on the back of weather concerns in Brazil and USA added to a high activity from speculators.
The European crop monitoring agency has revised downwards its soft wheat yield estimate for the EU to 5.86 t/ha from 5.89 t/h estimated last month. This is a consequence of the recent cold weather. In winter barley, the European yield is also revised downwards to 5.83 t/ha from 5.88 t/ha estimated last month. Finally, in rapeseed, and not surprisingly, the estimated yield is down to 3.19 t against 3.26 last month.
Rapeseed is being pulled up around Europe and throughout the UK. French acreage is below 900,000 ha, while yields will probably be below the 5-year average. Lastly, the crushing activity remains dynamic due to skyrocketing vegetable oil prices on the international market.
Another crazy session yesterday in Chicago. 8-year highs have now been reached on main commodities.
Corn plantings are estimated to be 17% complete as of last Sunday, compared to 20% for the 5-year average to date. However, the figure was within the range of traders' expectations. Soybean planting is 8% complete, ahead of the average (5%). Spring wheat plantings are 28% complete compared to 19% on average to date.
The US winter wheat crop rating fell to 49% of good to excellent from 53% last week.
Export inspections this week amounted to 564,047 t for the wheat and 1.9 Mt for the maize, exceeding traders' expectations.
Funds were once again very busy yesterday, being net buyers of about 60,000 lots of corn, 16,000 lots of soybean and 18,000 lots of wheat.