October 13th

Market Report

WASDE report was the main news of the day. Wheat was the winning crop as anticipated by the market in this month’s report with reduced supply. Significant reduction in supply of Hard Red Spring, Durum and White wheat for 2021/22 are expected to curtail feed and residual use. Exports are unchanged. 2021/22 US ending stocks are reduced by 35m bushels to 580m bushels, lowest US ending stocks since 2007/2008. Global wheat supplies are projected to fall by 8.6Mmt to 1,064.2Mmt on reduced beginning stocks for Iran and reduced production for Iran, USA and Canada. Iran has had 1.5Mmt taken off from production, Canada’s is reduced by 2Mmt to 21Mmt from the 23Mmt previously. Global export trade is fractionally lower at 199.6Mmt, lower Canadian exports are offset by high Aussie exports. Projected 21/22 world ending stocks are reduced by 6Mmt to 277.2Mmt, lowest since 2016/17. Chicago Dec-21 was up 4 cents and Kansas Dec-21 was up 5 cents at time of writing. Minneapolis Dec-21 was up 9 cents at time of writing.

Corn turned bearish on the back of the WASDE. US corn outlook is for slightly high production, increased exports and larger ending stocks. Global corn production is forecast down to 1,494Mmt with virtually unchanged trade. Chicago Corn Dec-21 was down 5 cents at time of writing. Soybeans got hammered on the back of higher yield and ending stocks, US 2021/22 ending stocks are projected at 320m bushels up and up 135m bushels from last year. Matif rapeseed Nov-21 settled down €9.25 on yesterday at €641.25/t and May 22 settled down €8.00 on yesterday at €622.75/t.

European wheat markets remained supported, with both the Matif and London Wheat settling higher on the back of the WASDE figures. Egypt’s GASC returned to the market to buy more wheat after it recently closed a tender to buy 240kt of wheat before cancelling the tender half an hour before the WASDE figures. The record pace of Russian exports to Kazakhstan are also questioning the size of the Kazakh crop size and export potential. Kazakh wheat crop is all spring wheat and it suffered the same hot, dry conditions as Russian spring wheat. Another 250kt of Chinese vessels are in French ports, market is questioning just how much French wheat has been sold to China and the associated quality. French agricultural industry has lowered its estimation for the 2021 soft wheat crop to 35.2Mmt from 36.1Mmt expected last month. On Monday, FranceAgriMer and Arvalis announced that only 31% of France’s soft wheat harvest has a specific weight above 76kg/hl, down on the five year average of 76%.

Matif Dec-21 wheat settled up €3.00 on yesterday at €271.50/t and May-22 settled up €4.00 on yesterday at €263.50/t. London wheat Nov-21 settled up £4.00 on yesterday at £208.50/t and May-22 settled up £3.50 on yesterday at £214.50/t. Both pushed up on the WASDE wheat outlook and bullish US wheat markets.