November 10th

Market Report

The USDA report provided some surprises with overall bullish wheat and soybeans and neutral corn.

World wheat ending stocks are estimated at 275.8 Mt compared to 276.5 Mt last month. Soybean ending stocks are seen at 103.78 Mt compared to 105.48 Mt last month. Corn yields have been revised upwards in the US to 177 bushels/acre from 176.9 estimated last month.

In this context, wheat on Euronext gained between +2 and +3 €/t, while corn was unchanged at +1 €/t. The rapeseed showed again a tremendous progression, with a gain of +14 €/t for the February 2022 delivery.

The French Ministry of Agriculture revised upwards its soft wheat production estimate to 35.456 Mt, taking into account an area of 4.974 M ha and an average yield of 7.13 t/ha. Barley production is forecast at 11.448 Mt, resulting from 1.729 M hectares with an average yield of 6.62 t/ha. In corn, the 2021 harvest is expected to be 14.5 Mt, compared to 13.9 Mt estimated last month.

The rapeseed was the biggest gainer yesterday following the USDA report. The French Ministry of Agriculture is forecasting a 2021 production of 3.297 Mt, based on an area of 983,000 ha and a yield of 3.35 t/ha.

American market
The USDA report has been surprising in soybeans by showing a US yield estimate of 51.2 bu/acre vs. 51.5 estimated last month. This number is in opposition with traders' expectations of an upward revision.

Wheat ending stocks in the 8 major exporting countries have been revised down to 48.44 Mt from 50.0 Mt estimated last month and 59.4 Mt last year. The EU's wheat production is cut by 1 Mt to 138.4 Mt, while Russia's production is unsurprisingly revised upwards to 74.5 Mt.

Estimations about corn were more or less in line with expectations with an estimated yield of 177 bu/acre compared to 176.9 bu/acre last month.

According to the Buenos Aires Exchange, the 2021's soybean production in Argentina could amount to 49 Mt compared to 43.1 Mt last year. Corn production is expected to reach 55 Mt compared to 50.5 Mt last year.

Yesterday, funds have been net buyers in 4,000 lots of corn, 17,500 lots of soybeans and 8,500 lots of wheat.