Hope is returning to the financial markets as concerns about the danger of the Omicron variant subside. The S&P 500 index on the New York Stock Exchange thus returned to its pre-Thanksgiving level yesterday, while WTI oil clearly rose above the psychological threshold of $70/barrel.
This situation provides support for commodities in general and grains, even if, pending the USDA report to be released this Thursday, December 9, movements remain limited.
With the exception of rapeseed, which once again showed itself yesterday with a strong increase of up to +21 € / t in yesterday's session on the February 2021 maturity of Euronext. With a rebound of +57.75 € / t over the last 5 sessions, rapeseed is back to the doors of 700 € / t which has not been seen since November 17.
In France, the publication of FranceAgriMer's December report will be followed this morning while Agreste released yesterday its first estimates of areas for the next harvest 2022.
The area of soft winter wheat for 2022 is expected to decrease by -0.6% to 4.924 million hectares compared to 4.956 million hectares in 2021
Durum wheat is expected to decrease by -1.8% to 279,000 ha from 284,000 ha in 2021
Winter barley is up by +2.4% to 1.226 million ha from 1.197 million ha in 2021
The market remained fairly mixed yesterday in Chicago with traders waiting for the USDA report on Thursday night. The consensus of analysts expects little change in U.S. inventories for the month of December. However, weaker than expected export performance could lead to a slight increase in US wheat and soybean stocks. While the good demand for corn, especially for ethanol, could lead to a very slight decrease in US stocks.
The market is also waiting for a better knowledge of crop conditions in South America for the next few weeks.
Funds bought 2,000 lots of corn and 2,000 lots of wheat in Chicago yesterday, while selling 5,500 lots of soybeans.
The U.S. administration ruled yesterday through the EPA for a retroactive downward revision of the biofuel mandates to 17.13 billion gallons for 2020 and 18.52 billion gallons for 2021 due to reduced fuel demand during the Covid-19 pandemic in the U.S. The mandate for 2022 has been increased to 20.77 billion gallons. It should also be noted that the EPA would reject multiple requests for exemptions.