Another period of increase in the agricultural commodities markets yesterday, still due to extreme tension between Russia and Ukraine. Indeed, in case of conflict, the flow of goods in these two major exporting countries would most likely be disrupted. Volatility is therefore the order of the day, sometimes without justification on the basis of fundamentals, with geopolitics taking precedence over all other drivers.
Internationally, the Philippines bought 35,000t of milling wheat and Iran is back to buying for officially 60,000t of milling wheat and 60,000t of feed barley. French operators will closely monitor Algeria's attitude on its latest tender to see if tensions between the two countries persist or not.
Within the EU, while French customs figures are still incomplete, wheat exports to date stand at 15.62 million tons against 15.04 million last year to date. Exports of barley are at 4.91 million tons against 4.33 million last year. Imports of maize were down to 8.87 million tonnes from 9.75 million tonnes last year. Imports of rapeseed amounted to 2.73 million tons against 4.02 last year.
Despite disappointing export figures for palm in Malaysia, prices are still rising this morning in Kuala Lumpur, thanks to risks on production related to both the weather, but also the lack of manpower in the current health context. Both rapeseed and canola prices were hesitant yesterday, but ended in positive territory after the decline of the past few days.
The dollar is at 1.1300 against the euro and 78.65 against the ruble this morning. Oil remains firm at 85.20 usd/barrel in New York.
In Chicago, wheat prices continue to rise in the context of geopolitical tension and thanks to crop ratings on winter wheat that continue to deteriorate.
ADM is optimistic about US corn plantings, despite the rise in fertilizer prices, estimating 93 million acres and 87 million acres of soybeans. This contradicts other analyses that predict a sharp drop in corn plantings.
Corn was once again hesitant yesterday, split between the risk of disrupted flows from Ukraine, and an improving weather situation on the South American continent.
Funds were net buyers yesterday for 5,000 lots of corn, 2,500 lots of soybeans and 9,000 lots of wheat.