Russian troops back to barracks? Don't be too sure on that, although it will remain dangerous and naive to bet your crops on a full scale invasion.
It was enough for the Russians to announce a partial withdrawal of their troops, a withdrawal that has yet to be confirmed, for the markets to give up part of their so-called geopolitical risk premium, leading to a sharp decline in prices both in Paris and Chicago. Volatility should remain the order of the day in the days to come, especially since the American markets will be closed next Monday for President's Day. Another factor that weighed on prices yesterday was the rainfall expected over Argentina this week. However, meteorologists believe that the risk of La Nina still exists and that the coming weeks will be crucial for the country.
Internationally, while waiting for the result of the Algerian tender, we note the sale of 53,500 t of soybeans by the USA to Mexico. South Korea is purchasing 82,000 t of milling wheat, originating in the USA and Canada. Japan has also purchased 54 692 t of wheat from the USA.
Corn imports to the EU were 10.12 million tons as of February 13, compared to 10.46 million tons last year to date. Wheat exports are reported at 17.27 million tons compared to 16.87 last year. Barley exports were 5.15 million tonnes compared to 4.85 million tonnes last year.
Rapeseed prices were down in the 2022 crop but remained firm in the 2021 crop. Rapeseed imports into the EU are at 3.18 million tons as of February 13, compared to 4.39 million last year to date. Canola was down in the wake of palm and soybeans.
Prices in Chicago fell sharply yesterday due to sales liquidating, particularly by funds, following a drop in tension over the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. However, the doubt persists on the future attitude of Russia leading to a probable rebound of prices today.
In Brazil, the producers' association posted a soybean crop estimate of 125.8 million tons, well below the latest USDA estimate of 134 million.
Soybean crushing activity is declining according to Nopa, but remains at a high level compared to previous years.
In corn, China's attitude regarding the level of its imports will continue to be a determining factor for the future evolution of prices.