The impact of the conflict on the Black Sea basin is difficult to analyze, depending mainly on the duration of the conflict and the impact of sanctions that could be taken against Russia. Navigation on the Azov and Black Sea is suspended for the moment.
Egypt was forced to cancel its tender yesterday, having received only one offer from France. In the short term, prices are therefore rising significantly for all products. In the longer term, several questions are being asked, in particular about the ability of the Ukrainians to carry out their work in the fields, and for the rest of the world to cope with a continued surge in fertilizer prices (which are closely related to gas prices). In France, the most difficult situation is for livestock farmers, who are facing a rise in feed prices, combined with a depressed meat market.
International buyers may have to face cancellations by shippers claiming a case of major force, and turn to other origins than the Black Sea ones, thus participating in the price rising both on Euronext and on Chicago.
The quantities of wheat remaining to be exported by Russia and Ukraine by the next campaign are estimated by Agritel at 8 and 6 million tons respectively.
Oil prices are pausing in their rise this morning in pre-opening trading at 94.50 usd/barrel and the dollar is posted at 1.1210 against the euro and 84.55 against the ruble. Metals prices are higher, as Ukraine is a major player in a number of products in this area.
Wheat prices yesterday on Chicago were stuck on their trading limit last night at +50 cents a bushel, while soybeans closed lower. Corn was mixed and closed up +9 cents. The daily limit up are raised today to 75 cents per bushel for wheat ( compared to 50 cents before).
In China, soybean meal prices are reaching all-time highs on worries of supply difficulties.
Argentina received beneficial rains yesterday over most of the country, giving hope for improved corn and soybean yields.
The USDA at its annual forum posted an initial estimate of future US corn acreage at 92 million and soybean acreage at 88 million.