March 16th

Market Report

The current situation on the Black Sea remains at the heart of operators' concerns as the spring sowing period approaches. The surface areas in Ukraine are, as of now, announced to be down from -25% to nearly -40% depending on the sources and the assumptions used. Weather conditions have not been favorable for the start of work up to now. The activity should, in the face of more favourable weather, start despite the numerous difficulties encountered in the field.

During the current campaign, the logistical repositioning of certain buyers is taking place and is validating surprising flows of goods, such as a ship loading for Egypt from France for a private Egyptian buyer. The renewed interest in European origins implies a prospect of increased export activity and a prospect of reduced stock at the end of the campaign. Given this situation, the production outlook is important to monitor.

COCERAL is revising its wheat production estimate slightly up from its December estimate. The expected volume is now 141.3 Mt (including British production in the European production). Corn production is expected to be 67.3 Mt, a volume almost similar to last year, even if the area has yet to be planted. In rapeseed, the rapeseed industry has revised its production estimate in Europe slightly downward to 19.3 Mt, a figure that is up from last year's production.