New very sharp decline in prices for all products due to diplomatic progress between Russia and Ukraine. The main driver remains to be geopolitical uncertainty. Volatility will therefore remain the order of the day as the talks progress.
From a fundamental point of view, it is still difficult to measure or anticipate the consequences of the war on the 2022 harvest in Ukraine, given the difficulties in carrying out field work and supplying inputs.
The weather is also going to invite itself in the markets with little rain announced in France and negative temperatures expected for the end of the week.
Internationally, Tunisia is buying 150,000 t of milling wheat and 100,000 t of feed barley. Today ends the tender for wheat from Algeria. The EU has announced the allocation of 200 million euros to help the Maghreb cope with the rise in grain prices.
After France assured Egypt to supply it with wheat in case of supply difficulties, it is India's turn to enter into discussions with the Egyptians.
EU wheat exports stood at 19.87 million tons as of March 27, compared to 20.48 million tons last year to date. Barley exports were 5.79 million tons, compared to 6.01 million tons last year. Maize imports were 12.05 million tonnes compared to 12.10 million tonnes last year. Imports of rapeseed were 3.90 million tonnes compared to 5.13 million tonnes last year.
Rapeseed prices have fallen sharply in the wake of canola and oil prices. They remain nevertheless on historically high levels, due to tense balance sheets and fears of risks of frost at the end of the week. Palm oil is also losing ground. The price of sunflower oil remains very strong amid fears about future production in the Black Sea basin.