Markets continue to show strength, despite a slightly bearish USDA report. This steadiness is a consequence of the conflict in the Black Sea basin, with fears that the port of Odessa could be a next target for Russia.
Last week's rains were welcome, as water reserves are low. Low temperatures should not have significantly impacted yield potential, except locally.
On the international scene, Algeria is back to buying with a wheat tender for May and June shipments.
According to the FAO, the food price index has reached a record high of 159.3 points compared to 141.4 in February, i.e. an increase of 13% in just one month. The index has surged by 17% for cereals and 23% for vegetable oils in one month. This is the consequence of the war in Ukraine with the uncertainty about the future production.
FranceAgrimer displays a "good to excellent" crop rating for wheat at 92%, unchanged from last week. It is also unchanged for winter barley at 88%. Spring barley is seen in good to excellent conditions up to 92%. Corn plantings were estimated to be 4% complete as of April 4.
According to the USDA, Ukraine will export 19 million tonnes this year and Russia 33 million tonnes, confirming that Russian activity will remain strong despite the conflict.
The export taxes in Russia have increased to 101.4 usd/t from 96.1 usd/t for wheat. In barley they remain unchanged at 75.4 usd/t.
Rapeseed was up on Friday in the wake of canola. Heavy snowfall are expected in the coming days in Canada, raising fears of a delay in the upcoming planting. Palm oil is still rising this morning in Kuala Lumpur.
The main points to keep in mind from the USDA report are :
World ending stocks :
Wheat: 278.42 Mt vs. 281.41 Mt expected
Corn: 305.46 Mt against 300.91 Mt expected
Soybeans: 89.58 Mt vs. 88.79 Mt expected
South American crops :
Brazil corn: 114 Mt vs. 116 Mt in the last USDA report
Corn Argentina: 53 Mt vs. 53 Mt in the last USDA report
Soybeans: Brazil: 127 Mt compared to 125 Mt in the last USDA report
Soybeans Argentina: 43.50 Mt versus 43.50 Mt in the last USDA report
Funds were net buyers on Friday for 9,000 lots of corn, 15,000 lots of soybeans and 15,000 lots of wheat.