March 12th

Market Report

The markets continue to progress in a context that remains tense in Ukraine, but also fueled by unsatisfactory weather conditions for winter wheat in the USA. The global balance sheet is tense, and the end of the season should be problematic for many importing countries, where stocks are at their lowest. Egypt is back to buying today for shipments between May 20 and 31 for delivery between June 1 and 15.

Internationally, there was another large sale of corn by the USA to China, for a volume of 1,020,000 t.

India is a major wheat exporter this year, with potentially 8 million tons available for export. Production this year is expected to be a record 111.32 million tons.

In Argentina, road transporters have begun a strike, which could eventually impact exports if the strike continues.

Morocco has experienced a historic drought this year, with the result that the crop is expected to be more than 50% smaller than last year.

Rapeseed continues to show strength through the most tense balance sheets before the next harvest, and especially before Canada can again supply the market, not before September 2022. The palm is progressing in a context where stocks at the end of March appeared yesterday on lower levels than expected, thanks to a sustained export activity.

Despite a crop rating revised slightly upwards on winter wheat to 32% considered good to excellent, compared to 30% last week. This remains nevertheless on a low level and the risk of a persistent water deficit supports the prices. The corn sowings are carried out only up to 2%, at the same level as last week, and against 4% expected by the operators. The sowings of spring wheat are carried out up to 6 % against 5 % on average to date.

Export inspection this week for corn is at 1,418,827 tons, within the range of expectations, as well as for soybeans at 766,232 tons and wheat at 411,012 tons.

Russia reportedly exported 400,000 mt of grain last week, compared to 560,000 mt the week before, according to analyst Sovecon. Ukrainian exports are by rail to the west and are therefore limited. According to the Union of Ukrainian Traders, the 2022 wheat crop could be 18.2 million tons this year, down from 30.3 million tons in 2021.