April 20th

Market Report

Yesterday was another eventful session, with cereals starting the day higher and closing slightly lower in the wake of Chicago. The conflict in Ukraine remains at the center of the news, giving a firm bias for several weeks now to the commodities sector. Added to this is of course the usual period of climatic adversity, including the very low crop rating of winter wheat in the USA.

Internationally, the USA once again sold 123,650 t of soybeans to undisclosed destinations. Jordan once again cancelled its tender for 120,000 t of feed barley.

The European Commission reports wheat exports as of April 17 at 21.26 million MT compared to 22.08 MT last year to date. Barley exports are at 6.35 million tons compared to 6.56 million tons last year. Maize imports are close to last year's level at 12.77 million tonnes compared to 12.61 million tonnes. Imports of rapeseed are at 4.20 million tons against 5.45 million last year.

In Ukraine, fears are focused on the storage capacity of the future crop, given the very low export activity which will lead to a very large carryover stock.

Rapeseed is still showing a clear progression, especially on the last maturity of the 2021 crop on Euronext, i.e. the May 2022 maturity. Note that options closed yesterday on this maturity. This morning on Kuala Lumpur, palm oil is giving up some ground. Canola was down yesterday in Canada at the close.

Wheat prices declined at the close in a context of consolidation after Monday's sharp rise. The water deficit is weighing on winter wheat, while spring wheat plantings are estimated at 8% complete compared to 9% on average to date.

Corn plantings are at 4% complete versus 6% average, but within the range of trader expectations. Soybean planting is just getting started. Rains are still expected in the Corn Belt this weekend, which should delay planting.