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London wheat was slightly weaker / unchanged Friday but on the week, old crop was +90p and new crop + £1.50, making May – November spread £13.45
Coceral published their crop predictions for 2016:
EU wheat estimated 145.2 mmt (-3.5% year on year), barley 58.9 mmt (-3.6%), corn 63.2 mmt (+8%).
All major producers (France, Germany, UK, Poland) predicting down year on year but Spain up.
UK wheat crop 15.0 mmt (-6.9%), barley 7.1 mmt (-2%), OSR 2.15 mmt (-15%).
French wheat rating reduced by 1% but it is still 93% ‘good to excellent’ and barley is reduced by 2%, 91% ‘good to excellent’.
Ukraine winterkill is not as bad as previously thought in January, however a lot of crops still remain ‘weak’.
Dry weather is forecast for western Europe over the next 7 days helping field work (jet stream shifted north); Spain should have beneficial rain
US markets supported by soybeans are approaching 2016 highs, this is supported by stronger Brazilian currency reducing their exports.
Funds slightly reduced their short position but dry weather in US plains are continuing to make the market nervous.
USDA report on the 21st March will publish stocks and plantings, this has a habit of creating market surprises.
Sterling slightly stronger despite lower UK growth figures; referendum continues to influence.
Oil remains firm with the exports.author: Joe Beardshaw