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London wheat closed up £1.50 on Friday, weekly gain of £1 old crop and £1.25 new crop. May – November carry is £13.50 and May 16 – May 17 £20+.
US markets slightly recovered from Thursdays USDA report, soya reached a 7 month high. Despite bearish planting for corn area, it was reluctant to go down further, prices are already low and corn crop has whole growing season / weather ahead of it.
For the first half of April, Europe is forecast to have above average temperatures, aiding crop development. Regular rain will be required, especially if temperatures warm up; some opinions feel dry April is beneficial for root establishment.
French wheat rated 92% good to excellent (91% last year at this time), winter barley 91% good to excellent (91% last year) and spring barley 98% planted with 85% emerged (70% last year).
IGC estimates world wheat crop 2016-17 at 713 mmt (-3%) but world corn production increased 2.2% (993 mmt). World wheat stocks down 3 mmt to 67 mmt and world corn down 1 mmt to 58 mmt.
Sterling hits 16 month low against euro (80p), latest UK manufacturing output at lowest levels since 2013, economy maybe stalling. Sterling also very susceptible to Brexit situation.
Oil slumped 4% as Saudi states it will only cut production if other major producers follow, especially Iran, who intend to increase production after sanctions lifted; Iran not present at oil meeting in Doha on 17 April. Saudi also intends to reduce reliance on oil income by selling stake in the state oil firm Aramco.
author: Joe Beardshaw