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London wheat registered gains last week (old + £1.45, new crop + £0.65) making May - Nov carry £11.25, European markets were open yesterday but did not do anything dramatic.
Firmer US markets, especially soya; March soya was supported by oil (palm oil firm) but recent rise has been due to meal demand. 2/3rds of Soya is meal, this has helped crush margins which are 14.2% (10 year average 12.8%). U.S corn is c.47% planted and soya c. 9%; could see acre switch to soya? $ weaker on low growth in US helping $ denominated commodities
Bloomberg commodity index (22 commodity components oil, gold, sugar etc) rose 8.1% in April, out performing other investments e.g shares, this indicates fund investment.
French wheat rated 88% excellent down 4% (this time last year 91%) and winter barley 87% excellent (91% last year), these are still very high rating numbers. French corn 27% planted (11% last week) against 68% this time last year
EU wheat exports last week 599,000 tonnes to total 25.0 mmt (-9% last year). Barley total exports 8.7 mmt (+14% last year).
EU 2016 wheat crop increased to 142.76 mmt from 142.38, stocks at 18.87 mmt. International grain council put at 2016 grain production at 2.006 billion tonnes, up 9 mmt.
UK markets quiet with few sellers as growers nervous of crop conditions and hopeful of rises being sustained.author: Joe Beardshaw