May 03rd

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London wheat registered gains last week (old + £1.45, new crop + £0.65) making May - Nov carry £11.25, European markets were open yesterday but did not do anything dramatic.

Firmer US markets, especially soya; March soya was supported by oil (palm oil firm) but recent rise has been due to meal demand. 2/3rds of Soya is meal, this has helped crush margins which are 14.2% (10 year average 12.8%). U.S corn is c.47% planted and soya c. 9%; could see acre switch to soya? $ weaker on low growth in US helping $ denominated commodities

Bloomberg commodity index (22 commodity components oil, gold, sugar etc) rose 8.1% in April, out performing other investments e.g shares, this indicates fund investment.

French wheat rated 88% excellent down 4% (this time last year 91%) and winter barley 87% excellent (91% last year), these are still very high rating numbers. French corn 27% planted (11% last week) against 68% this time last year

EU wheat exports last week 599,000 tonnes to total 25.0 mmt (-9% last year). Barley total exports 8.7 mmt (+14% last year).

EU 2016 wheat crop increased to 142.76 mmt from 142.38, stocks at 18.87 mmt. International grain council put at 2016 grain production at 2.006 billion tonnes, up 9 mmt.

UK markets quiet with few sellers as growers nervous of crop conditions and hopeful of rises being sustained.

author: Joe Beardshaw