May 18th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London wheat closed up £1.05 yesterday despite sterling making biggest gains for 3 weeks. A reason for firmer UK wheat was the announcement that Ensus was due to re-open in July on a trial basis; lower grain prices help but green energy subsidies will still be required.

Sterling reacted to latest Brexit poll which has 55% remain and 40% leave, a change from April poll of 52% remain and 43% leave, but general opinion has it much closer. Stronger sterling reduces UK export viability, UK undercut by Baltic supplies.

Oil continues to firm, Brent crude fractionally below $50 barrel.

German wheat production for 2016 reduced 2% (1 mmt) from last month as planting survey indicated increase of oilseed area and reduction in wheat.

US markets are being driven by soya, meal demand being the growth engine; soya is pulling up corn and wheat.
Meal stocks in US and South America are 1/3 compared this time last year provoking demand.

US raises steel import tax 522% on specifically Chinese steel, the US are trying to protect from China dumping cheap supplies of cold rolled flat steel (used in manufacturing and construction); this will no doubt lead to counter measures from China.

The US election is causing turmoil for trade, $ likely to have bumpy ride; weaker $ helps $ denominated commodities.

author: Joe Beardshaw