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November 16 London wheat closed up 70p on Friday, bringing weekly gains to £3.10.
Bloomberg commodity index, which comprises of 22 raw materials, has registered just under 20% rise since January; 20% rise would signify ‘ a bull trend’.
UK markets helped by sterling weakness (euro 1.2677 / .7888p) as Brexit gather support with latest poll showing 45% leave.
European wheat reached a 5 month high as exports continue to erode stocks.
French wheat ratings down 2% to 85% good compared 89% this time last year; further downgrades expected. Barley down 10% to 78% compared last year 83%. Wet weather will potentially increase threat of disease and quality issues; further showers for France forecast. Poor quality wheat in France could compete with UK export markets.
Excessive rain is also a problem for Russia which is causing problems for corn planting; some areas of the Black sea region experienced 4x average May rainfall.
US markets continue to be supported by soya (Midwest drought), but some analysts feel soya maybe topping out, surprisingly US wheat closed at a 6 week high despite bearish fundamentals. Weaker $ due to employment figures saw potential interest rate rise recede; weaker $ helps US commodities.
Brent crude remains in $49-$50 barrel rangeauthor: Joe Beardshaw