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London wheat traded up 70p on Friday but closed down 35p for the week.
Market conflict between bad yields in France and robust results elsewhere – Russia and Black Sea.
French crop rated worst since 2003 despite record area. French wheat quality down 2%, now rated 42% good to excellent; 77% this time last year.
Imports likely to rise, France normally imports c. 200,000t premium quality milling wheat; but quality will be helped by carryover stocks of 4.9 mmt, Matif wheat values have climbed by 7% since July 1st
Encouraging German wheat harvest results, as are early UK reports.
World grain production for 2016-17 increased by 20 mmt to 2.046 billion tonnes, within 1 mmt of record high set 2 years ago; demand also increased to exceed 2.0 billion tonnes. Wheat increased to 735 mmt (increase in Russia and US); Russia forecast to harvest 69 mmt. Increased wheat use as competitive to corn.
US markets stabilised on Friday, soya showing a bullish reversal as commercial buying appeared. Weaker $ also helped ag coms, bearish US GDP figures compared even to EU sector.
Argentinean wheat planting delayed by rain.
author: Joe Beardshaw