August 03rd

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

London wheat closed up yesterday 55p.

Sterling recovered despite expectations that the Bank of England will cut interest rates tomorrow. Carney due to deliver statement on plans to tackle weaker growth and faster inflation post Brexit. £ v’s $ has been trading in a narrow range after Brexit reaction but US has own election situation / nerves.

Despite their big yields, Russian and Ukraine wheat values are firm (Ukraine + 2.2% last week) as smaller French crop removes competition increasing demand for Black Sea supplies. Recent Egypt tender saw only 60,000t Russian wheat bought with no French offers; prices 4% higher than week before.

US markets are weaker as latest USDA crop ratings is 72% good to excellent. Soya prices are down, there is no bullish argument apart from the speed at which the price has declined and non-commercials are still long, this could be price pressure if they try to liquidate; resistance levels are broken.

Early UK wheat reports are encouraging but overshadowed by doubts after French crop yields / quality; will UK follow pattern?? Following on from this there are also concerns about Baltic quality beginning to circulate.

Oil under pressure (Brent $42) as global supply glut and slow demand weighs on sentiment.

author: Joe Beardshaw