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London wheat closed 50p down on Friday but slightly firmer on the week.
US wheat markets up possibly as funds buy to reduce short position but technical analysts feel upside unless wheat breaks $5.30 which would indicate trend change. U.S soya beans now cheapest supply, if China buys they will be sourced from U.S.
Sterling gains against euro and expectation for euro to remain weak, this should help European wheat values; European price rises will influence U.K. However exports from E.U are lagging despite Egypt last week buying European wheat; worryingly, last week E.U corn imports were bigger than combined wheat and barley exports.
Latest IGC figures have global wheat area for 2016 down 1.2 million hectares but the total still above 5 year average. Production could be further decrease as area has slightly reduced but growers have cut inputs to save cost and this is resulting in lower yields.
El Niño impact being blamed for southern hemisphere crop concerns, Argentinean wheat crop has been put at 9.5 mmt; -16% year on year. Heat and moisture stress in Australia, especially New South Wales (30% wheat production), and hail and frost hitting western Australia.
Chinese manufacturing down for third month in a row, hitting far east stock markets.
U.S employment numbers will be published today this could impact $ and therefore affecting commodity markets.author: Joe Beardshaw