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London wheat is not showing any dramatic price change, old crop down 20p and new crop up 20p.
Weather continues to be benign, but we are getting into the period when market volatility responds to weather and sentiment.
The big unknown factor on price direction continues to be currency; there is a conflict of opinion amongst currency ‘experts’, some are saying UK economy proving resilient and Europe is in election mode, so we will see sterling gain. Others say UK will suffer as Brexit proves difficult to implement and UK trade deficit will see sterling decline.
US markets are also quiet, although wheat did firm on cold conditions in US winter wheat area. Corn has quietly been trending higher for the last 5 months. USDA agricultural forum today / tomorrow will indicate planting intentions , likely to show record soya area.
Egypt buys further 360,000t wheat from Russia and Ukraine, this will bring weekly total to 720,000 tonnes. The season’s cumulative total is 4.6 mmt; this time last year 3.25 mmt. French wheat was price competitive at last tender but suffered from higher freight costs.
India may need to increase wheat imports as domestic supplies dwindle, but Australia will benefit from increased demand with bumper crop to distribute.
author: Joe Beardshaw