March 06th

Market Report

Our market reports are opinion based and are not instructions to trade. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

Friday London May 17 closed down 20p and November 17 up 35p; UK wheat registered gains of c. £2.00 for the week however at the time of writing old crop has firmed up. UK old crop wheat is stuck in a range supported by a tight balance sheet.

European wheat crop potential looking good, French wheat rated 93% good to excellent; UK crops good apart from oilseed in eastern England. EU forecast EU wheat crop up 5.7% year on year at 143 mmt but this is below other predictions of 150 + mmt.

Sterling falls below 1.16 against euro but there remains split opinions on forward trends; sentiment that the euro is gaining and sterling is falling appears to be gaining traction, based on European voters rejecting anti EU policies; but we have seen how misleading polls can be!

US markets are quiet as changes to biofuel mandate appear to be a rumour and unsubstantiated. There is an expectation that the FED may raise interest rates, this would potentially strengthen $ and be bearish for agricultural commodities. If $ gains it would make European wheat; both euro and sterling when prices compared in $, more attractive.

China announces reduced growth for 2017 at 6.5%; growth in 2016 was 6.5 – 7%, the lowest levels for 26 years.

author: Joe Beardshaw